FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 25

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 25 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2020-01-28 at 18.40.12

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 59.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 49 penalty area touches.
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sergio Agüero – 16.8% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 30 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 1 assist.

KDB – 13.5% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 13 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 1 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 4 assists.

Jamie Vardy– 10.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 18 penalty area touches.
  • 6 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Trent Alexander-Arnold 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 9 penalty area touches.
  • 5 total goal attempts.
  • 1 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 2 assists.
  • 4 clean sheets.

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 33 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

Screen Shot 2020-01-28 at 14.14.54

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang – Above we see the statistics for Aubameyang and you can see, just before that red card, he was starting to turn heads and in particular, ahead of a really great fixture run for Arsenal. Aubameyang started like a house on fire, returning in every one of his PL games for the first 7 GWs, but since then, it’s been a bit poor considering his high price.

However, the club in general were struggling but now Unai Emery has left, Arteta has come in and is starting to, albeit slowly, imprint his philosophy and style into Arsenal. We saw it immediately in their game against Chelsea at the Emirates. For the best part of 86 minutes they were almost perfect. Passion, organisation, fluid on the ball, chances created but the old problem presented itself right at the end of the game for them.

Since then, they’ve beaten United comfortably, and had wins against Leeds and now Bournemouth in the FA Cup, as well as draws against Palace, Sheffield Utd and Chelsea. So it is slow, but ahead of a great fixture run, this is the kind of asset that could explode, starting with Burnley, who haven’t been anywhere near as solid this year as they have been in past seasons. Given that they’ve conceded the third most amount of big chances (12) of any side in the last 5 GWs, I’m backing Auba to return to action with a haul.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2020-01-28 at 13.05.24

The winner of the metric is Sergio Agüero.

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Sergio Agüero have scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Liverpool and Leicester City have created the most amount of big chances (16) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Man City’s opponents, Spurs, have conceded the most big chances (9) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score according to the bookies (William Hill).
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sergio Agüero has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Clean sheet odds: Liverpool are the most likely to keep a clean sheet thus, Trent Alexander-Arnold is awarded the highest amount of points for this section as he will receive the most points if a clean sheet is attained, then KDB and Salah (midfielders awarded a point for a clean sheet) then the strikers (awarded 0 points for a clean sheet).
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero has the highest reliability % having returned in 12 of his 18 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 6 double-figure hauls in his 22 games.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

With the confirmed news that Sadio Mané is 100% out of the game tomorrow night against West Ham AND on the weekend against Southampton by Klopp, as well as Jamie Vardy facing Chelsea and being a doubt currently (Tuesday 28th Jan), it seemingly leaves the door open for a fairly simple captaincy in Mohamed Salah, but I wonder if it’s really the best option?

Screen Shot 2020-01-28 at 14.59.24

The captain metric, remember, is simply a statistical analysis of who is the best option, taking certain “relevant statistics” into account and on stats, Sergio Agüero is the man, but sadly, it cannot account for rotation worry and with Pep, it’s ALWAYS a concern, especially when City have a game mid-week and not just any game, but a semi-final against Manchester United.

Of course they could easily get through that game, having already won 3-1 at Old Trafford, without Agüero, but can you trust 100% that he doesn’t start and then if he does start and plays 90, can you be confident of a start on the weekend? Some of you may think so, but personally, I don’t know how you could.

United also have done a number on them at Etihad this season winning 2-1 in a game where United could have easily scored 3-4 in the first half so that will be a worry for Pep.

The insecurity of not knowing when he will start for an asset at that price is too much for me but we know, if he does start, then he’s a big danger and one of the most lethal finishers to ever grace the pitch and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hurt the Tottenham backline at all, it’s just the IF* he starts part that worries me.

Mohamed Salah plays Saints at home, just 2 and a bit days after facing West Ham. Small recovery time and against a team that are in fantastic form – only Man City (22) and Liverpool (30) themselves have picked up more points than Southampton (19) in their last 10 games.

So this won’t be an easy game, as much as I’m sure you will all point to the fact that he has 5 goals and 1 assist against them home and away in their last 5 meetings.

I think he’s a decent option this GW, but not a great one. Admittedly, there isn’t much else to go for, so if you are doing well and ranked well, there’s no sense in risking it with anyone else but Mo Salah, but I just wonder if having a punt on Aubameyang might be a good bet for those chasing their mini-leagues?

Arsenal have won every one of their last 5 meetings and have scored a total of 14 goals against them, close to a 3 goal average. In those meetings, Aubameyang has scored 7 goals and assisted twice, so he, like Salah v Saints, seems to enjoy playing this opposition.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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