FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 26

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 26 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

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The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 55.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 49 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 25.9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 39 penalty area touches
  • 22 total goal attempts.
  • 18 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 1 assist.

KDB – 12.8% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 2 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 17 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang – 5.8% of votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 35 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Son Heung-Min 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

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Son Heung-Min – When compared against the other options in the metric, as you will go on to read below, Son pales in comparison however, if you look closely, he’s been a decent asset all season despite obvious difficulties at Spurs, with 12 returns in 20 appearances.

We know how explosive Son can be and without Kane leading the line, the goalscoring falls more heavily on the South Korean, but as we’ve seen in the past when Kane has been out, he has enjoyed the responsibility. With a goal in Spurs’ big win against City this past weekend, Son and Spurs will be full of confidence going into a game against a side that have conceded 18 big chances in their last 5 games. Son could be the powerful differential you need to boost you up the ranks.

Captain Metric

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The winner of the metric is Sergio Agüero.

IMPORTANT NOTE: 

As it’s the new winter break in the FPL, there’s a big gap between the games starting this weekend and the games at the end of the GW, meaning that the odds for all these matches are not yet available, so “Anytime goalscorer odds” has been removed for this week. 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Sergio Agüero have scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Manchester City have created the most amount of big chances (19) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Man City, Arsenal and Spurs’ opponents, Newcastle, West Ham and Aston Villa. have all conceded the most big chances (18) over Liverpool’s opponents, Norwich.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sergio Agüero and Mohamed Salah have the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away goal conversion – Sergio Aguero has the best home/away goal conversion of the other candidates.
  • Reliability % – Mohamed Salah has the highest reliability % having returned in 14 of his 22 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Mohamed Salah is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 7 double-figure hauls in his 22 games.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

This one is a bit of a weird one with it being the first ever Winter Break, meaning that the GW starts this Saturday and is going to end on the 16th February.

That means that, if you’re going to captain a Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool asset, or Vardy, you’re going to have to suffer through another week of training before you get to see your captain play.

The odds are unlikely your player gets injured in that week of course, but injuries can occur at the worst of times, just ask those who Triple Captained Mané!

I’m not saying it’s something that should stop you captaining someone playing later, but it is something to consider.

Man City will play this Sunday, and had no mid-week game, so those of you with Agüero should be licking your lips.

If you own Agüero, for me, it’s an easy decision. You captain him.

Against Spurs, he hit the post, had one cleared off the line, and usually takes pens for City, who were awarded one but Gundogan took, and missed. He also had a few other decent opportunities, so on another day, he’s looking at 2-3 goals.

West Ham’s form hasn’t really improved much under Moyes and they’re still looking defensively frail with 18 big chances conceded in their previous 5 PL games. I expect City to fully exploit that this Sunday.

Screen Shot 2020-02-05 at 11.56.54

If you don’t own Agüero, then I would probably go with Salah.

KDB’s goal threat has considerably diminished. He hasn’t been having as many shots and hasn’t been getting into the box as much as he was earlier in the season whereas Salah, is on fire right now and although Norwich have toughened up defensively, Liverpool just can’t stop winning and Salah’s starting to hit that top form again.

KDB isn’t a bad option at all, as I can see West Ham getting a spanking this weekend and we know he’s the chief creator however, I think Salah’s ceiling is perhaps the higher of the two given the higher goal threat.

If you’re looking for a differential, then I fancy Son Heung-Min as mentioned above.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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