FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 27

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 27 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 18.33.49

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 70.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 51 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 19 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 11 chances created (5 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sadio Mané – 16.1% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

KDB – 7.9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 2 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 21 chances created (5 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 5.7% of votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 47 penalty area touches.
  • 26 total goal attempts.
  • 21 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 1 assists.

Danny Ings

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 32 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 18.18.43

Aubameyang – I’m coming back to this man again, as he’s still relatively low owned at 17.5% at the time of writing and has bags of potential with the fixtures he has on the horizon. Coming off the back of a solid home performance, where his side bagged 4 against Newcastle, the signs are there that Aubameyang and Arsenal are starting to get there with Arteta.

Auba scored 1 goal in the 4-0 win but still managed to boast 2 bonus points which was very positive, considering it was a 4-0 game. Of course, looking at the scoreline, you’d want more, but 8pts is a solid return and if he, and Arsenal, play like they did against Newcastle again, then there’s points again for Auba against Ancelotti’s Toffees. I’m backing him to get another goal in this match, as I think Everton’s defence can be got at.

Captain Metric

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The winner of the metric is Mohamed Salah.

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Mohamed Salah have scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Manchester City have created the most amount of big chances (19) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Southampton’s opponents, Aston Villa, have conceded the most big chances (23) over the other candidates’ opponents.
  • Anytime goalscorer odds – According to the bookies, Mohamed Salah is the most likely to score this weekend of all the candidates.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sergio Agüero has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away goal conversion – Sergio Aguero has the best home/away goal conversion of the other candidates.
  • Reliability % – Kevin De Bruyne has the highest reliability % having returned in 16 of his 25 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Mohamed Salah is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 7 double-figure hauls in his 23 games.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

This GW is an easy one for me given what’s on offer.

Yes, Danny Ings has been brilliant this season and plays at home against a woefully defensive Aston Villa, but when it comes down to it, who do you trust more to bag, a player like Salah or Mane in a side like Liverpool, or Danny Ings in a Southampton side?

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 18.59.19

That’s not me saying I don’t think Ings will do well, I think there’s a great chance of a haul there for sure, but he’s only had 1 double-figure haul all season which, funnily enough, came against Aston Villa however, my point is that he’s had plenty of opportunities to hit double-figures against weaker sides, and has returned just the one goal.

Salah and Mane on the other hand, play in a much better team and are playing against a team that’s almost as bad defensively as Aston Villa, in West Ham. Not to mention the numerous occasions they’ve hit big hauls.

It simply comes down to the quality of the team and the quality of the opposition. Ings typically either gets gifted his goals or fashions a half chance for himself and don’t get me wrong, he’s been prolific, but Southampton won’t feed him like Liverpool feed Salah and Mane.

I, and I’m sure many of you, will feel far more comfortable putting the armband on one of these two, or even Alexander-Arnold.

Liverpool could easily tear West Ham apart and a big haul isn’t out of the question for one of Salah or Mane and I for one, certainly wouldn’t want to bet against it this week.

Keep it simple, give it to Salah.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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