FPL Captain Metric: Blank Gameweek 28

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Blank Gameweek 28 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

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The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 52.8% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 56 penalty area touches.
  • 24 total goal attempts.
  • 20 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Jamie Vardy – 22.4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 14 penalty area touches
  • 8 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mané – 18.6% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Trent Alexander-Arnold 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 7 penalty area touches
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 1 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 11 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 3 assists.
  • 3 clean sheets

Danny Ings

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 1 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Captain Metric

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The winner of the metric is Mohamed Salah.

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Mohamed Salah have scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Liverpool have created the most amount of big chances (16) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Southampton’s opponents, West Ham, have conceded the most big chances (18) over the other candidates’ opponents.
  • Anytime goalscorer odds – According to the bookies, Mohamed Salah and Jamie Vardy are the most likely to score this weekend of all the candidates.
  • Clean sheet odds – Liverpool are the most likely to keep a clean sheet, and given TAA gets the most amount of points from this, he wins out on this particular stat.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Mohamed Salah has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away goal conversion – Jamie Vardy has the best home/away goal conversion of the other candidates.
  • Reliability % – Trent Alexander-arnold has the highest reliability % having returned in 18 of his 27 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Mohamed Salah is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 7 double-figure hauls in his 24 games.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

As you can see from the absence of it above, I haven’t included the usual ‘differential captain’ section that usually appears on this article.

I haven’t excluded it because I couldn’t be arsed this time, no, I’ve done it because, given the fixtures that are available, I simply cannot find a reasonable differential captain to suggest that isn’t in the metric.

Liverpool assets will be heavily backed this GW given Man City and Arsenal are blanking and the only options outside of them are Vardy and Ings based on fixtures, but neither of these are in the greatest of form – anything else would be a real gamble, and a silly one in my honest opinion.

Vardy hasn’t produced a single return in his last 5 games and only has an assist in his previous 7 while Ings, despite proving incredible value this year, only has 1 goal in his last 5 games.

I still think they’re reasonable calls IF you do want to go against Liverpool, but I really don’t think this GW is the week for it.

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I do think however, there’s real value in going with perhaps Mané or Trent Alexander-Arnold against Mo Salah if you’re looking to climb rank, as both these assets won’t be as well backed as Salah, but should still do well, as we saw last GW with both TAA and Mane outscoring Salah.

Nigel Pearson has got Watford going again. They look stronger in every department and I can’t see Pool smashing them, so a TAA captaincy could well be a good call, as I expect a 2-0 kind of scoreline.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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