Discussing Various Chip Strategies To Navigate the Blank and Double Gameweeks

We take a look at the various FPL chip strategies you can employ based on the situation you are in to help you navigate the upcoming blank and double gameweeks

Okay, so we’re deep into blank/double gameweek season in FPL right now. If you haven’t already been thinking about how you’re going to employ your chips, now is the time!

So below, I’m going to delve into the various chip strategies you can employ based on the various positions you’ll be in. When I say the various positions, I mean, what chips you have used/not used and whether you have your second wildcard available or not.

The basics

For those of you who aren’t familiar with the terminology:

Blank Gameweek (BGW)- A gameweek where some teams DO NOT feature

Example: GW31 (or, BGW31 as we call it), only features the following 4 fixtures:

Spurs v West Ham
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Wolves v Bournemouth
Burnley v Watford

So for obvious reasons, you need to prepare for this as best as you can, as you’ll have players in your teams right now, who WILL NOT play in BGW31.

This does not mean, “Oh shit, I need a full XI quick!” – and then you take numerous hits until you get 11 players, no. Do not do this. It just means you have to put your thinking cap on.

Double Gameweek (DGW)- A gameweek that features 1 or more teams playing twice within that same GW.

Example: GW24 featured Liverpool and West Ham playing twice within the same GW. Liverpool played West Ham AND Wolves.

West Ham played Liverpool AND Leicester.

These DGWs present a unique opportunity for a player to get very high points, as if they play both games, they have 2x chances at returns.

A little more complicated…

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 17.05.58

Okay, so now we have the basics over and done with, let me get a little more complicated on you and provide you all with what I believe to be, based on my analysis, the most rational choices for chip strategy in each position and then hit you with my reasoning for each.

Bare in mind, that the content in this article (written Tuesday 10th March) will date as we move forward, as further down the line, we will know more about when the doubles will be and what teams will play etc.

Additionally, I do not know everyone’s team and of course, some of my suggestions will not work for some because of your team structure/set up/team value – everyones team is gonna be a little different. They will be generic and based on what I believe is the optimum route solely based on the chips left and second wildcard.

The situation as we know it today

BGW31 – The fixtures have been confirmed 100% and are detailed above ^

We are likely to have 2x DGWs, one in GW34 and one in GW37.

Currently, @BenCrellin on Twitter (BGW + DGW mastermind who uses maths, historical data and scheduling to predict the % likelihood of when BGW/DGWs occur and which teams will or will not feature before they are officially 100% confirmed) has shed the following light on the situation:

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 12.01.06

For reference, you cannot see Watford, Wolves or West Ham in the above screenshot. Simply hit the link I’ve provided above to his Twitter page and explore his spreadsheets for the full info.

So this is what we know now. Now you’re all caught up and have all info to hand, let me present my ideas for each situation and the reasoning.

All Chips remaining + second Wildcard

Now this one is probably the most complex, as there is a lot of different ways you can go in this situation but, this is what I believe to be the most logical choice based on the data we have right now:

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 14.44.45

Now, as you can see from this FDR schedule Ben Crellin has made, Wolves have Villa away and Arsenal at home in GW32 and 33 respectively. These are fixtures I’d be relatively happy to own 3x Wolves going into. Additionally, any West Ham/Burnley/Spurs assets also have either good or reasonable fixtures in these two GWs.

If you were to build your ideal WC squad in 32 right now, it’s difficult to choose who you’d go for as we don’t know until after BGW31 what the situation in GW34 is going to be, so for those, such as myself, who were originally thinking a Wildcard in 32/33, BB GW34 and FH37 would be better, just think about the players you’d want from GW32 onwards.

For me personally, using the Wildcard to jump on Chelsea/United assets as well as getting Mané/Salah rather than the DEF double up, were key points to this argument, given fixture swings/form, as well as the fact both United and Chelsea will be fighting hard until the end of the season for UCL qualification.

However, I already have Bruno Fernandes, a switch from Robertson to Alonso is an easy move and I could easily get Tony Martial for KDB if I so desired or jump onto an attacking Chelsea asset.

The only downside to this plan, is that it doesn’t give me the Mané/Salah double up however, there’s a potential chance Klopp rests his key players in the league, once it’s been confirmed they’ve won it, to then prioritise and focus on the Champions League.

So my point is, you can use transfers to get in Alonso/Bruno/Tony quite easily and for some, KDB > Mané is an easier move, and I don’t think you’d lose many points on someone who Wildcarded in 32.

Looking at it in more depth, realistically, who would you go for on top of your current side, that you couldn’t get using free transfers? Would your set up drastically change?

If not, then don’t Wildcard, if it would, then I would consider the WC in 32 and BB 34, FH 37 strategy with the Triple captain being deployed wherever in-between you feel is best.

GW34 – Free hit. Because of the above rationale, it seems pointless to Wildcard in 32/33 as you wouldn’t get much immediate extra value over the team you would have had + transfers, and you’d be building a bench boost side for a smaller DGW with a smaller pool of players.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

GW38 – Triple captain.

I’ve put this here, because we do tend to get odd scorelines on the last day of the season and there’s a couple of decent fixtures however, I think there’s just more value to be had out of using the WC/BB combo for the 37 and free hit in 34 is more powerful than triple captain. So I think you’ve just gotta use it in-between those GWs, when you feel it’s right.

All Chips remaining, no second Wildcard

Very difficult to optimise the remaining GWs without the second Wildcard as you’re probably gonna have to take a fair amount of hits.

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 but look further ahead to players likely to have a double gameweek in 37 and who have good fixtures for the run in.

GW32/33 – At this point, you’ll know more info on the schedule and you can use your transfers to get players with good fixtures and a double in 37, ignore players for GW34. Try and build your players for a good bench boost. If you can manage to build a good GW37 team with a good bench boost, then go that way, if you can’t, then use Triple captain.

GW34 – Free hit.

GW35/36 – Continue with transfer plan bringing in players for DGW37. Don’t take in form players with good fixtures out just because they don’t have a double in GW37 though! Your only advantage on those who still have Wildcards is that they will be heavily focused on building their squads for the double and will potentially miss out on some good single GW players who could haul.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

GW38 – Triple Captain or again, whenever in-between you feel is best.

If you decided earlier on that you weren’t gonna be able to build a decent Bench Boost for DGW37 and you liked the look of a player for Triple Captain in that GW, then BB whenever in-between you feel is right.

Free Hit, Bench Boost and Second Wildcard remaining – no Triple Captain

If, like me, you have burned your Triple Captain chip on Sadio Mané in DGW24, then below is what I believe to be the optimum route:

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to bring in anyone you want to take a punt on for GW32/33.

GW34 – Free hit.

Because of the above rationale stated in the “All chips remaining + second Wildcard” section under the GW32/33 heading, it seems pointless to Wildcard in 32/33 as you wouldn’t get much immediate extra value over the team you would have had + transfers, and you’d be building a bench boost side for a smaller DGW.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

Free Hit and Bench Boost only

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 but look further ahead to players likely to have a double gameweek in 37 and who have good fixtures for the run in.

GW32/33 – At this point, you’ll know more info on the schedule and you can use your transfers to get players with good fixtures and a double in 37, ignore players for GW34. Try and build your players for a good bench boost.

GW34 – Free hit.

Without a WC, it’s more prudent to Free Hit in this GW given that you have limited transfers to build a good bench boost DGW team and it’d be for a smaller DGW than 37. If however, your team looks good to bench boost in this GW, then I would Bench Boost 34 and Free Hit 37. This one, in my opinion, depends on your current team set up.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

Triple Captain, Free Hit + second Wildcard

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to bring in anyone you want to take a punt on for GW32/33.

GW34 – Free hit.

Based on the fact there is likely to be better Triple Captain options in DGW37 however, this depends on the scheduling.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Triple captain.

Triple Captain, Bench Boost + second Wildcard

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to bring in players with good fixtures in these two GWs and the DGW34.

GW34 – Triple captain.

Based on the fact GW37 is likely to be a bigger DGW than 34, so ceiling for potential points is higher.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

Triple Captain + second Wildcard

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to bring in players with good fixtures in these two GWs and the DGW34.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Triple captain. Options look better in 37 than in 34.

Triple captain + Bench Boost

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to plan for an effective DGW37 bench boost team.

GW34 – Triple captain.

Again, this one depends on your current team set up. If your team looks good for a Bench Boost in this GW, and you like the look of the Triple Captain in 37, then go for it.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

Triple Captain + Free Hit

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to

GW34 – Free Hit.

GW37 – Triple Captain.

I’ve gone with it this way around as, from now until 34, you’ve less transfers to build an optimal team as opposed to from now until GW37 where you’ll have more free transfers to build an optimal team.

This way, you match the FH, WC and BB squad with the FH in 34 and you can compete better with the TC in 37 versus their BB in 37. You’ll just have taken a hit or two potentially, depending on your transfer planning and of course, any suspensions/injuries etc. This route requires very careful planning.

Free Hit + second Wildcard

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33 – Use transfers to bring in anyone you want to take a punt on for GW32/33/35/36 depending on when you feel it’s best, for your team, to Wildcard.

GW34 – Free Hit.

GW35/36/37 – Wildcard.

Very much depends on your team set up as to when in these 3 GWs you choose to play it.

Bench Boost + second Wildcard

GW30/BGW31 – Use transfers to prepare for BGW31 fielding 3x Liverpool, 3x Wolves and then a few differentials from the rest of the teams. I think 8/9 players is enough.

Just think about the quality of asset you’re bringing in before you transfer them in and whether it’s really worth it. If it’s for a hit, I would argue don’t bother if you’re going for someone like Deeney/Lucas Moura/Antonio. They are lower priced assets for a reason – they’re unreliable. Also, if you own BUR GK/defenders, think about it, if Deeney/Sarr do well, it counteracts your defenders and GK doing well, so how many net points will you gain?

GW32/33/34 – Use transfers to bring in the most effective players for these GWs.

GW35/36 – Wildcard.

GW37 – Bench Boost.

Only Triple Captain

I’d play this in GW37, as the fixtures look the best currently, but we will get the announcement after GW31 and then you can decide.

Only Bench Boost

GW37 is looking likely to be the bigger DGW (greater choice/pool of players), but it depends on your team set up and what looks most optimal.

Only Free Hit

I would say DGW37 has the best potential again, but it depends what you can do with your transfers. If you can build a good DGW37 side using transfers but you think your squad might be falling short in DGW34, then Free Hit 34.

Only second Wildcard

I’d wait until after GW31 until we get the fixture announcements and then decide. If you’ve got the 3x Pool, 3x Wolves type squad heading into GW31, then as I stated earlier, there might not be much point in Wildcarding in GW32/33 as, if you look at it, who would you bring in over anyone you could simply transfer in? Would there much added value?

I personally can’t see enough added value to justify it in GW32/33, so I’d look at deploying it in DGW34 and setting yourself up for the run in as well as building a good squad for DGW37.

Food_for_thought_visual_identity-800x400

 

One thought on “Discussing Various Chip Strategies To Navigate the Blank and Double Gameweeks

Add yours

  1. Thanks Simon,
    You have made a situation which is difficult to understand a lot clearer and you have posted good strategies for all managers.
    Thanks again.

    Like

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