FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 30+

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Double Gameweek 30+ and reveal the results of our captain poll – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

ADDITIONALLY: Because it’s a double gameweek, there is NO metric this time as it’s very difficult to obtain and display in a logical way, the relevant statistics and odds we use. The metric isn’t designed for double gameweeks with it’s set up so parts of it wouldn’t make any statistical sense.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 16.47.42

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Sergio Agüero – 42.4% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 26 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 0 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne – 40.3% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 4 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 20 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling – 10% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 32 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 7.3% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 20 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Single Gameweek options

Mohamed Salah 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 59 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mané 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Jamie Vardy

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 12 penalty area touches
  • 8 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 1 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Analysing the Candidates 

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 17.29.08

Sergio Agüero is quite rightfully the front runner in the poll. After starting the season like a house on fire, amassing 61pts in his first 8 GWs, the Argentine fell to injury again and was out for several weeks where Gabriel Jesus flourished in his absence.

Upon his return however, where he was eased back in, Agüero got right back to it, hitting 8pts against Sheff Utd in their 2-0 victory and smashing in a hat-trick and an assist against Villa in his next start, backing that up with another start and a brace at home to Crystal Palace.

There’s no denying the talent and the ceiling is almost limitless for this asset in this City side, but we all know the problem with him – it’s rotation, but the question is, what can he do in the time he does get?

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 18.14.20

Kevin de Bruyne makes a close second in the poll, again, rightfully so. For me, easily player of the year with some of the incredible performances, goals and assists he’s put in.  He may not have the same goal threat as Aguero, Sterling or Mahrez, but he is so creative and even if he gets just an assist, because of the chances he creates, he’s a bonus point magnet and is always in with a chance of those bonus points at the end of the game.

With an incredible 26 goal contributions in FPL already so far this season and a staple in the side, it’s very difficult to look past this guy for the armband. Agüero may well share a fair amount of minutes with Jesus, but it’s unlikely KDB will see his minutes decreased as much as Agüero which makes him a potentially more enticing prospect for the armband.

Other City option Raheem Sterling could prove to be a massive differential captain. He sits at 16.2% ownership overall (not live) at the time of writing and we all know that he can produce huge returns on his day. This season however, has seen a decline in his output for one reason or another.

13 blanks out of a possible 23 games isn’t good enough for someone at a hefty price tag of, what’s now, £11.7m, but he did start the season VERY well, with 5 goals in his first 3 games totalling 34 FPL points. Some FPL managers will be hoping he can replicate his start to the campaign in DGW30+, but it’s a lot of money and given there’s likely to be rotation, it seems a huge risk.

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 18.04.39

Gabonese striker Aubameyang makes up the last of the main DGW30+ captaincy options.

Since the start of February 2018, Aubameyang has outscored Mauro Icardi, Neymar, Edinson Cavani, Sadio Mane, Sergio Aguero, Karim Benzema, Luis Suarez, Timo Werner, Romelu Lukaku, Antoine Griezmann and Harry Kane, as he has found the back of the net 49 times in 74 Premier League appearances.

The striker scored 10 league goals in his first half-season at Arsenal before getting 22 in 2018-19, and he has 17 so far this season.

Only Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Robert Lewandowski, Kylian Mbappe, Ciro Immobile and Mo Salah have scored more goals in the big five leagues in that time – that tells you the level of striker we’re dealing with, and he has 2 fixtures this GW, albeit one of them away to Manchester City.

Without overthinking, he represents a very good captaincy candidate yet has only received 7.3% of the votes. The fixtures and the fact he is playing from the left instead of up front perhaps are the reason being this but even so, a credible captaincy candidate without doubt.

Conclusion 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

Despite Aubameyang’s amazing goalscoring record in the Premier League, it comes down to what we think he can do in these two games against Man City and Brighton.

As I reason in my article assessing Arsenal’s prospects for Double Gameweek 30+ (https://fplconnect.blog/2020/06/11/arsenal-assets-for-double-gameweek-30-potential-trap/) both Man City and Brighton have been tough opponents for Arsenal:

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 18.18.07

Aubameyang scored 3 of the 6 goals in these games so if you’re looking at this game of the two thinking the ceiling is quite high, well, it’s not that high based on previous data.

Now, of course, we’re in completely unchartered territory right now with the global pandemic, which may well invalidate previous data, but it’s all we have to look at to judge on, as the situation we’re facing hasn’t occurred before and based on this data, it’s actually quite tough to see him doing that well across the two gameweeks.

For me, I think 1 goal across these two games is the most likely outcome, which would see him return between 8-11pts and for a price tag of £11.1m, I don’t think that’s worth it across those two matches and I can see other options for cheaper with only 1 match, either matching or outscoring.

So, this leaves the City boys who I think represent a much more feasible captaincy choice, in particular, KDB and Agüero.

Agüero is more or less guaranteed to get less minutes than both KDB and Aubameyang, but it’s how explosive he is in the time he does get, and we know just how explosive he can be, evidenced by the fact he has the same number of, and larger double-figure hauls than Aubameyang (4), in almost 1,000 less minutes of gameplay – exactly why Agüero is the preferred choice to the Gabonese International and of course, has the stronger fixtures.

But in my opinion, it’s Kevin de Bruyne that’s the stand-out option. Likely to start both matches, the most consistent point scorer of the two with SEVEN double-figure hauls to date. The guy has everything and represents the best captaincy option on paper.

If you’re looking for a differential however, then I think Riyad Mahrez is the best one.

Screen Shot 2020-06-16 at 18.34.22

He’s proven that when he starts, he can produce, and produce big time, evidenced in my tweet above. He should start at least one of the games and potentially get bench minutes in the other at the least and at an ownership of just 9.6% at the time of writing, that could be one to shoot you up the overall ranks like one of Elon Musk’s rocket launches!

All the best for Double Gameweek 30+ everyone – I hope we all see some big scores… well, perhaps not all 😉

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

 

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