FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 5

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 5 and reveal the results of our captain poll – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

IMPORTANT NOTE: Because it’s the start of the season and the metric is based purely on 5 previous GWs worth of relevant data, the metric is not yet included in this article as we want to make use of this season’s relevant data.

Our data analyst is working hard on enhancing the metric which we will be aiming to get out for GW6!

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

IMPORTANT NOTE: All underlying stats are taken from the previous 4 GWs aside from Man City attackers (as they blanked in GW1 – their stats taken from GW2/3/4 only).

Heung-Min Son – 27.2% of the votes

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mo Salah – 25.5% of the votes

  • 42 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Kevin de Bruyne – 24.8% of the votes

  • 16 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 22.5% of the votes

  • 22 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 11 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 6 assists.

Raheem Sterling

  • 30 penalty area touches.
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Jamie Vardy

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mane

  • 25 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Analysing the Main Candidates

Heung-Min Son/Harry Kane – West Ham (H)

After terrorising Man United’s abysmal defence last GW, Son and Kane face a resurgent West Ham side who have made a solid start to the 2020/21 campaign following their 4-0 dismantling of Wolves and a brilliant 3-0 away win at Leicester last GW.

Only 3 teams sit with a better xGC (expected goals conceded) than West Ham (3.71) so far this campaign and with Spurs having been the most impressive in the game against Saints, where Saints were playing a suicidal high line, and Man United, who were down to ten men for the majority of the game, it may not be as straight forward.

Son and Kane have been mightily impressive, but it has mainly come in the above two games, where they have been afforded so much time and space to operate in. From what we have seen from the Hammers so far, particularly in their games against Leicester and Arsenal, where Aubameyang and Vardy barely had a sniff, just having 1 goal attempt each, they’re unlikely to be given that time and space in this one.

Having said that, against the lower block Newcastle, Spurs were very impressive in the first half, and through the game, created 14 chances from 23 goal attempts, with Son hitting the woodwork twice and Kane having 15 penalty area touches and 8 goal attempts in the match. So we can consider them quite unlucky to have only scored the 1 goal in that game.

Mo Salah – Everton (A)

Everton have undoubtedly been one of the best teams so far this year, with the new additions to the squad they have made. They have the 3rd best xG and currently sit with the best xGC value of all teams in the PL, having created 13 big chances and conceded just 4.

Whilst Liverpool were destroyed by Aston Villa as a team last GW in that freak 7-2 result, Salah individually has been brilliant. With his consolation brace in that match, that now puts him up to 5 goals and 1 assist in his first 4 games.

No player, so far, has registered more penalty area touches (42) or goal attempts (19) than Mo Salah so far, so his goal threat has not diminished at all this year. If anyone can break down and get at Everton, it will likely be him.

Kevin de Bruyne – Arsenal (H)

It is currently reported (Tuesday 13th Oct) that Kevin may not be available for the game against Arsenal. However, if declared fit, he’s a good call for the captaincy once again.

Despite being deployed deeper against Leeds, he still managed to create more chances (5) than any other midfielder in that GW. His goal threat didn’t suffer too much at all either, as he had 5 penalty area touches and registered 5 goal attempts, with 3 coming inside the box.

Much has been made of the improvement in organisation of Arsenal from the Emery era to Arteta’s take over and you can see it’s improved, but it’s not improved all that much. They currently sit about average for xGC so far (5.13) and are perhaps quite fortunate to have only conceded the 5 goals, as they have conceded 7 big chances.

Liverpool could have scored more and West Ham also were unlucky not to have added to their 1 goal at the Emirates. With the quality City have, particularly in KDB, if he plays, it’s hard to see him not getting the better of Arsenal’s backline.

Conclusion

As we can see from the results of the captaincy poll, this week is a super tough one.

It does however, make it more interesting, as it appears there will be a greater variety of choice which is generally more fun, as you’re unlikely to be celebrating a captain goal with 30%+ of the FPL population!

On paper, the Spurs v West Ham fixture looks the best, despite West Ham’s recent solid performances. Spurs have been electric and Kane/Son have been unplayable however, I’m just unsure if I fully trust Mourinho and Spurs just yet based on all I’ve seen, last year included.

As noted above, the games they’ve been most impressive in have come from the opposition affording them obscene amounts of space, which they’re very unlikely to get against West Ham.

However, it is difficult to ignore just how impressive they have been and they’ll be jubilant after that Man United result.

The rumours about Kevin put him and probably Sterling out of the running for the captaincy there, sadly. I don’t expect Sterling to be anywhere near as effective if KDB is not playing.

Mo Salah is likely the safest bet this week, despite the embarrassing 7-2 defeat to Villa. Even in that loss he managed to pick up 13pts. Whilst Everton have been impressive, they have still shipped a couple of goals to WBA and Brighton.

The quality of Liverpool’s attack is far stronger and despite a shaky start to the defence against their title, only Spurs (17) have created more big chances than they (14) have.

Given the nature of the PL so far in that there’s been so many goals, particularly in Liverpool and Everton’s games, I expect this to be a high scoring one, and for Salah to get plenty of chances.

Adding to that, this is likely to be the first very competitive Merseyside Derby we’ve had in years, as Liverpool have dominated for a long time, but with Ancelotti at the helm and the impressive new recruits in combination with Liverpool’s awful defence so far, it has the makings of a very competitive and feisty game, which can lead to an increase in fouls and possible penalties.

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