FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 6

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 6 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 63.6% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 52 penalty area touches.
  • 25 total goal attempts.
  • 19 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 20.7% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 25 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (7 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 7 assists.

Heung-Min Son – 9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 22 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 16 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling – 6.6% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 36 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 23 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 17 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 1 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 35 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of the metric is Harry Kane.

Important note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Statistically, Kane comes out on top of our new metric down to, mainly, his incredible individual performances that have seen him hit 5 goals and 7 assists in his first 5 games.

Burnley haven’t given up too many big chances so far and that’s why they rank quite low on our metric, but because Spurs, and particularly Kane have been so dominant in taking and creating big chances, he is top of the pile followed closely by Son.

Salah ranks a little lower on the metric score to Son and Kane, because his form isn’t as strong as their’s and Sheffield United rank quite low for big chances conceded, expected goals conceded and goals conceded.

His individual bias however is very high, as he contributes greatly to his own score and doesn’t rely too heavily on the team around him which makes him a great captain choice again this week.

Grealish could be an interesting outside punt according to the metric, but the data is heavily skewed by Villa’s insane 7-2 win against Liverpool in which a massive 24 of his 38 FPL points came.

Differential captain suggestion

Raheem Sterling – 7% ownership

The fairly obvious differential captain choice at just 7% ownership coming off the back of 2 goals in 2, and the winner in the tight Arsenal match that saw him hit his first double-figure points haul this season.

Neither Man City or Sterling have set the world alight in the way we know they can yet. In terms of goals scored/chances created, City rank 13th and 12th respectively. Admittedly, they have played 1 less game than the majority but even so, you’d expect more from them.

On top of that, only Burnley and Aston Villa have conceded less goals and big chances than West Ham (7 goals conceded, 7 big chances) so far this season however, we saw what the quality of Son and Kane did to them last week and if City raise their game, I expect we’ll see chances for Sterling.

In addition, Sterling has 4 goals and 4 assists against The Hammers in his last 5 Premier League appearances against them, so he seems to enjoy this fixture!

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

I expect Salah, as we saw in our poll, to be heavily backed this week although I don’t expect it to be a landslide like in our poll.

We have to remember that my poll is just on Twitter, which is a tiny representation of the overall FPL playing population.

I expect Kane and Son to both be backed quite heavily again, as Burnley haven’t been as impressive this season defensively just as much as Sheff United haven’t, when compared to last.

I think a lot of us on Twitter, including myself, can be blindsided by FOMO (fear of missing out) and we tend to be influenced sub-consciously. Seeing so many “I’m captaining Salah”, “Salah at home to a bottom half team? No-brainer for captaincy” tweets and then of course, landslide polls.

It’s difficult, but I don’t think it’s as clear-cut as that, now I’ve come away from Twitter and dived into the stats and looked a bit closer at everything.

Kane/Son in that attack right now are electric. They’ll be extremely frustrated they didn’t get the win against West Ham, but no-one can deny how good they were in the first half and although Burnley have only conceded 5 big chances, they have conceded 8 goals in their 4 PL matches.

They don’t seem to be as defensively solid and I think, with the way Son and Kane are playing right now, that they’ll score 2+ goals in that game minimum.

I still feel Salah might be the best option here however, seeing as he’s in great form himself and his consistentcy at Anfield is hard to ignore. And despite Liverpool’s struggles this season, they still rank top of the pile for xG (12.02).

So before writing this article I was firmly on Salah, after writing it, I’m still on Salah, but I am now greatly considering Harry Kane.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Start a Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: