FPL Captain Metric: FPL Gameweek 7

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 7 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 43.3% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 45 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 28.1% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 25 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (7 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 8 assists.

Heung-Min Son – 23.9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 23 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 8 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Sadio Mane4.7% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 44 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 42 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Captain Metric

The winner of the metric is Heung-min Son.

Important note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Heung-min Son takes over from his partner in crime, Harry Kane, as this weeks captain metric winner.

This is mainly down to Son now in better form than Kane (last 5 GWs), with him scoring 11pts last GW and Kane only getting 5pts.

The above, combined with Spurs dominating the xG and creation of big chances category – ranking top for xG and second best for big chances over the last 5 GWs – makes him, and Kane, the best selections once again.

They also dominate the ‘Individual Bias’ stat, which means they don’t have to rely so much on the team playing that well to contribute to their returns. Right now, they’re very much relying on each other, and it’s working brilliantly.

Now that Salah’s opening day hat-trick and subsequent 20pt haul is out of the 5 GW form window we operate with, his metric score has taken a knock considerably, as his form per 90 mins over the last 5 GWs is not as high as some of the other candidates.

Combine that with him up against a team who sit with an xGA (expected goals against) of 4.81, the joint best of any team in the PL so far, and that’s why the metric isn’t suggesting we go choose him as our captain.

Grealish’s high metric score is still mainly a result of their 7-2 anomaly win v Liverpool, so this is temporarily skewing the data.

Outside of the top 2 Spurs suggestions, Sadio Mane is the best choice according to the metric. He is now the form player out of him and Salah according to our 5 GW duration for form, but he faces the same tough defence and of course, we can’t factor in the fact he doesn’t have penalties.

Differential captain suggestion

Sadio Mane (9.4% ownership)

A player of THIS quality, under 10% ownership, could do some serious damage. Everything you could want for a differential captain is right here in Sadio Mane.

A high calibre player, playing in one of the best attacking teams in world football and in great form. The only thing he doesn’t have, is the fixture.

West Ham have been very solid defensively so far, as we’ve identified above in the metric analysis, with their xGA of 4.81 (joint lowest of any side), so it won’t be an easy one for Mane, but Liverpool, despite what could be viewed as a fairly dodgy start, by their standards, still rank 2nd for big chances created.

The worrying concern for West Ham, and the positives for Mane/Salah owners, is that when the Hammers came up against the in form, high quality pair of Kane/Son, the defence got ripped apart in 16 minutes, where they conceded 3 goals.

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that similar could occur when facing the quality of Salah and Mane, and with Mane the in form of the two, I back him to do the damage.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

Even before the metric numbers were calculated, I was already thinking of choosing one of Kane/Son over Salah, simply down to their scintillating form.

Despite Spurs struggling to break down the low block and well organised defence of Burnley, they still managed to score 16 points between them, from a combined 12 penalty area touches and 6 shots (Kane 4, Son 2) which, considering how deep Burnley were sitting all game, is pretty good.

When in you’re in a purple patch like these two are, things just fall nicely and of course, we expect some regression soon, but until we see evidence of their creativity taking a downturn, there’s no reason to not continue riding this wave.

Brighton, whilst their actual underlying defensive numbers have been rather strong and similar to West Ham’s, with 9 big chances conceded to West Ham’s 8, an xGA of 6.03 to West Ham’s 6.38 and the fact they’ve conceded the least amount of shots of any side so far, they have still conceded 12 goals.

That’s because when they’ve played sides with strong attacks, (Everton, Man United and Chelsea), they have conceded 3 goals or more.

When we look at West Ham v strong attacks so far, they’ve conceded 2 to Arsenal, 3 to Spurs and just 1 against Man City. So I feel as though West Ham are slightly better equipped to deal with stronger attacks than Brighton are given what we have seen so far.

That’s not to say, of course, that Salah and Mane against West Ham aren’t likely to do well, I think they’re both strong choices this weekend.

Salah owners and captainers last GW were super unfortunate to not see any returns, as he had 14 penalty area touches and 2 big chances, one hitting the post, the other saved. He also had a superb goal ruled out for being what must have been an inch offside.

This was against a side that hadn’t been offering many chances, but the quality of Liverpool’s attack and Salah in particular, was almost too much to handle and I expect Salah (should he play – was seen limping off after his penalty in their win against Midtjylland) to get chances against West Ham.

The underlying numbers suggest that the defensive level of Brighton and West Ham are similar, the two key differences are that despite good underlying numbers, Brighton have still conceded 12 goals whereas West Ham have conceded 8 and Kane and Son are in superious form to Salah and Mane.

So after a strong start to the metric’s predictions last week >> (https://fplconnect.blog/2020/10/21/fpl-captain-metric-gameweek-6-3/), I will be backing the metric this time and choosing one of Kane/Son.

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