FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 8

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 8 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Harry Kane – 53.1% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 27 total goal attempts.
  • 18 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Heung-Min Son – 29.4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Mohamed Salah – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 49 penalty area touches.
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mane 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 41 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 46 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Jack Grealish

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 46 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (5 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 5 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of the metric is Harry Kane.

Important note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Harry Kane wins out this week down to the best combination of individual score and team score.

Spurs still rank one of the best attacking teams in the PL over the last 5 GWs, ranking 2nd for xG (expected goals for) and 3rd for big chances created. Individually, Harry Kane is only beaten by Grealish for form.

Spurs’ opponents, WBA, haven’t actually been that poor defensively over the last 5 GWs. They rank 11th worst for xGA (expected goals against) and have conceded 8 goals from 9 big chances, which isn’t great but it’s not that bad either.

Grealish comes out not too far away from Kane again, down to his form over the last 5 GWs, with him scoring 4 and assisting 5 times in this time, and Villa’s xG still being quite high (ranked 4th highest over that period).

Obviously the 7-2 result still skews the data slightly on him, but no-one can deny the ability of Grealish and versus opponents that gift big chances, he’s demonstrating that he should be a strong consideration.

Son makes up the top 3, with a score just shy of Grealish. Because his 4 goal haul v Saints is now out of the 5 GW form range we use, and with his blank last GW, his form and thus, his individual score suffers as a result.

Differential captain suggestion

Marcus Rashford (9.2% ownership)

United were outplayed against Arsenal on the weekend and will need a big reaction against Everton this weekend.

United have been very inconsistent so far this year but one thing that has been a little more consistent, is their form away from Old Trafford. They’ve won against Brighton, Newcastle and PSG and the next game against Everton comes at Goodison Park.

Sir Marcus Rashford MBE has also scored 22pts in those two away PL matches and was the hero late on in Paris too, so he’s performing in these away games.

Another positive in favour of United and Rashford is the decline of Everton’s defence in recent matches. Everton have conceded 8 goals from 9 big chances over the last 4 GWs and sit top of the pile for xGC (expected goals conceded) with a value of 7.63.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

This is one of those, “don’t overthink it, play it simple” GWs I think with regards to the captaincy.

The two best FPL assets up against the worst defence in the league…

WBA sit top of the pile for xGC (13.11), joint top for big chances conceded (17) and top for goals conceded (16).

Spurs sit top for goals scored (18), 2nd for big chances created (24) and second for xG (13.72) so far.

Add in, as we’ve already said, that Kane and Son are both smashing in the goals and assists for Spurs and the picture cannot be painted much clearer than that.

I do think Salah could do some damage to City’s back line, as I expect that game to be high scoring, but the potential of Kane/Son v WBA appears to be so much higher.

I don’t think you can go wrong with either Kane or Son this GW. I expect both to be returning in this one, but if pushed to select, I’m going with Harry Kane because he has more routes to goal than Son and he is destroying Son on the underlying stats, as pictured above.

27 goal attempts to Son’s 9 over the last 5 GWs is a fairly huge difference and one difficult to ignore.

He has the pens over Son and as we saw last GW, it can play it’s part if Spurs aren’t on form for whatever reason. They also cross to him from set-pieces and he can take the odd free kick himself too.

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