On a day when the world has kept all eyes on the results of the US election, the news that FPL managers had been eagerly awaiting, was finally confirmed, Danny Ings will miss the next 4-6weeks.
In the context of his injury record and dodgy knees, the Saints talisman will be happy it’s only 4-6weeks on the side-lines and not something much worse.
While it’s not the worst news for Ings and Southampton, it’s not great news for the many FPL managers who had been pocketing his 6.71 points per game.
These managers (and the managers who had been considering bringing in the Englishman until they saw him fall to the ground clutching his knee), now need to look elsewhere for points.
Where to look and who to bring in is the big question though. In this article, I’m going to take a look at a few potential candidates to consider as Ings’ replacement ahead of the GW8 deadline on Friday evening.
The Key Replacement Options:
At time of writing, Ings is priced at £8.5m, so I wanted to look at the key replacement options that are either the same price or cheaper than him.
While one of the obvious and easiest moves would be to swap to DCL, 56.4% of FPL managers already have the Evertonian in their teams so for that reason he’s been excluded.
With that in mind, the 4 options I decided to look at are Jimenez, Wilson, Bamford and Watkins.
To look at a comparison of the 4 strikers, I’ve taken a look back over their last 5 game weeks and looked at some key stats including; FPL points, points per game, goals scored, shots, shots on target, xG & xA to name but a few. Before looking at each player individually in more detail, let’s take a quick look at a side by side comparison table of all 4.
Looking back at his last 5 gameweeks, Jimenez scored 2 goals (GW5 &6), to help him to a return of 21 points and an average of 4.2 points per game.
4.2 points per game isn’t exactly to kind of return you want from a player who scored 17 goals and banked 194 points last season.
To make it slightly more underwhelming, this 5 week period came during a run of fixtures that seemed perfect for Jimenez to grab a good few goals (whu, FUL, lee, NEW, CRY).
Yes, he did score twice, but his underlying stats over this period – 14 shots, 6 on target and an xG of 1.33 doesn’t exactly scream value for money.
If he couldn’t return more than 21points over the last 5 gameweeks, his next 5, with 3 tricky away matches (lei, SOU, ars, liv, AVL), would seem like fixtures where he probably won’t do a huge amount better than his 4.21 points per game average.
Next up on the list is everybody’s favourite budget striker from 2018/2019, Callum Wilson (£6.5m). Fresh off a brace at the weekend against Everton, Wilson is a budget friendly option who has been in decent form since making his summer move to Newcastle.
After a 10 point return in his opening 2 gameweeks, Wilson has gone on to return 43 points in the last 5 gameweeks. His brace against Everton provided 12 of these points, but there was also a 16 pointer in GW4 against Burnley and an 8 pointer in GW3 away to Spurs.
With 5 goals over this 5 week period, Wilson has been averaging 8.6 points per game. Although he’s scored 5 goals, 3 of these were penalties, and his underlying stats don’t blow you away – 11 shots with 6 on target.
With 14.3% ownership, Wilson isn’t going to be a huge differential option (if that’s what you’re looking for), although his next 5 matches (sou, CHE, cry, avl, WBA) do offer some real opportunities for more returns.
The thing you need to ask yourself is, will Newcastle continue to supply poacher Wilson with chances and penalties?
The third option I wanted to take a look at, is one of the newly promoted lads who’s really hit the ground running, Patrick Bamford (£6.0m). With 6 goals and a price increase of £0.5m since GW1, Bamford has found his way into 32.2% of managers’ teams.
He started the season in great form, with 2 goals in his opening 2 matches, and has since gone on to score another 4 in the last 5 gameweeks. The first of these came in GW3 away to Sheffield United, before having to wait until GW6 where he broke Martinez owners hearts by smashing in a hat-trick against Villa.
These 4 goals have seen Bamford score 30 points over the last 5 gameweeks, for an average of 6 points per game. Bamford has been in good form and his underlying stats show this, with 24 shots and 22 of these coming in the box.
Although he’s been in good form for a very exciting Leeds team, their next 5 fixtures (cry, ARS, eve, che, WHU), throw up a few tricky matches where Bamford’s returns might be limited to what we saw in GW3 & 4 – 3 points.
The final player I wanted to look at is another of the newly promoted boys, Ollie Watkins (£6.0m). Watkins missed the first GW as he only joined Villa after he registration for GW1, so we first got to see him in a Villa jersey in GW2.
His first 2 gameweeks were relatively quiet, but boy did he announce himself in GW4 – with a hat-trick, an assist and 19 points against Liverpool. As if anybody could forget that match!
In his last 5 gameweeks, Watkins has scored 4 goals, with his only other goal this campaign coming at the weekend in the 4-3 defeat to Southampton. The 19 point haul against Liverpool has helped Watkins score 32points in this time frame for a 6.4 points per game average.
Although the majority of points came against Liverpool, Watkins has still looked lively with 32 touches in the box, the most out of the players I’ve compared. Factor in 7 attempted assists, 1 assist, and 12 shots, Watkins looks to be enjoying life in the Premier League so far.
The aspect that is enticing is his very low ownership of 4.8% and a kind run of fixtures on paper over the next 5 game weeks (ars, BHA, whu, NEW, wol). Villa have shown they can score goals when given the opportunity and Watkins has show he can finish, so with a bit of luck he can grab a few more over the next few weeks.
Although not included in the comparison, an honourable mention is given to another potential replacement option – Che Adams (£5.8m).
Ings’ teammate could be a very good replacement option as he will now need to step up for his team in a period where they are sure to miss the goals Ings has been providing.
Adams has actually racked up a fair amount of xG over the opening 7 matches (2.86), more than teammate Ings (2.68), but it’s the quality of finishing you’re paying the extra £ for, as Adams has converted 15.4% of his shots whilst Ings has converted 33.3% of his.
Having said that, because he is much cheaper, he is currently providing more points per million you spend (5.9) than Ings is (5.5) and is the 5th best value FWD in the game right now. So that tells you, if you can spend the extra money he gives you well, you’re getting great value from him.
If you’ve enjoyed this article and comparison feel free to give me a follow @FPLChimpParadox for more comparisons and threads.