Captain Metric: FPL Gameweek 9

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 9 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Bruno Fernandes – 53.1% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 14 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Jack Grealish – 29.4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 49 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 6 assists.

Sadio Mane – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 42 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Dominic Calvert-lewin

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 27 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Jamie Vardy

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 23 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 10 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Timo Werner

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 26 penalty area touches.
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Jack Grealish.

Important note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Jack Grealish is this weeks winner, down to the highest team score and the second highest individual score.

Aston Villa rank 2nd overall for xG and goals scored, and rank 3rd highest for big chances created over the last 5 GWs.

Whilst their opponents, Brighton, rank fairly well for underlying defensive numbers (8th best for xGA and 7th best for big chances against), they have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 games, which ranks 12th best.

Popular poll captain choice Bruno Fernandes ranks low on the metric in comparison to the other choices, because Man Utd’s xG and big chances created over the last 5 GWs are quite low.

Kane and Son score high on the metric as it’s based on a 5 GW window for form, and their individual score and team score are still highly ranked despite the difficult fixture.

Differential captain suggestion

Jamie Vardy (21.6% ownership)

Whilst Vardy is quite highly owned, a difficult fixture (at least on paper) will likely keep his % as captain fairly low, and the fact Bruno Fernandes is playing at home to WBA will likely make him a very popular choice, meaning Vardy should be a differential captain.

With Liverpool’s defence completely depleted and the fact their natural style of play is to play a counter-press, meaning they leave a lot of space in behind, this game is tailor made for Vardy to wreak havoc as he did at the Etihad.

In their last 5 games, they have conceded the 3rd highest amount of big chances, the 4th highest xGA and the most amount of goals. No matter what the personnel fielded, I expect Liverpool to play the same way, and this style could hurt them against an opponent like Vardy and I expect he will be a handful and will see some decent opportunities.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

The captaincy this week seems wide open, with Spurs against City and Salah out with COVID (as far as we know currently).

If you’re playing the fixtures with your captaincy then it seems as though Bruno Fernandes is the clear choice, but when we do look a little deeper, we see that WBA have tightened up over the last 5 GWs, with 6 goals conceded and an xGA of 6.18, which ranks around 9th worst.

To add to that, we can see that Man United’s attacking numbers aren’t that strong either, and we know how inconsistent they have been this year. They’ve also been very poor at Old Trafford, which is where they will take on WBA in GW9.

Despite United’s inconsistencies, Bruno Fernandes has still managed to score 5 goals and 3 assists, producing 53pts at an average pts per game ratio of 6.63, which is a very healthy average. He’s also already hit 3 double-figure hauls, and this tendency to hit big hauls is a very attractive pull for a captaincy.

DCL may have the benefit of James Rodriguez and Richarlison back for their game against Fulham and if that’s the case, he could make a good captaincy choice given Fulham’s poor defensive numbers. However, if they’re not back, I wouldn’t be as keen on him, as their creativity in attack suffers greatly without them.

Timo Werner seems to have hit form now, and his game against the Magpies could be a good opportunity to see him continue his goalscoring form however, Newcastle have actually only conceded 3 big chances in their last 5 games (lowest of any side), despite the 9 goals that they have let in. So I’m not sure I see haul potential for him in this one.

Other than Bruno Fernandes, Jack Grealish is the one that catches the eye. Brighton also have solid underlying defensive numbers, but seem to be undone when coming up against strong attacks. And Villa’s attack, currently, is in very good form, so I would expect the quality of Grealish, to get the better of Brighton’s defence.

I would say this is the week to try a differential captain option. Go with your gut, as you’re not going to be punished heavily if it goes wrong, like you would if there was a 50% owned player with a good fixture.

For me, if you have Bruno Fernandes, he’s the one to choose and that’s who I will place my captaincy on. Despite United’s inconsistent form, Bruno always seems to find a way to get the points and his ceiling is always high, with him on the set-pieces and the organic direct approach he has to his play.

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