Captain Metric: FPL Gameweek 10

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 10 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 37.8% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Mo Salah – 26.5% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 50 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Kevin de Bruyne – 21.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches.
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Dominic Calvert-lewin14.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 28 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Bruno Fernandes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 15 penalty area touches.
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 18 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Sadio Mane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 41 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 3 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Jamie Vardy.

Embed from Getty Images

Important note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Jamie Vardy wins this weeks metric, mainly down to a very high team score of 158 which is a combination of strong Leicester attacking numbers and Fulham’s poor defensive numbers.

As well as Leicester ranking 3rd highest for xG (expected goals) over the last 5 GWs, their opponents, Fulham, also rank 3rd worst for xGA (expected goals against).

Vardy’s individual score isn’t as high as others in the metric, as his underlying attacking numbers aren’t as strong, but because the fixture is so strong for him, he wins out overall.

Jack Grealish is the only one who’s team score comes close, as Aston Villa’s attacking statistics read well, with them ranking second best for xG in the last 5 and second best for big chances created.

Liverpool rank as the strongest attacking team, but their fixture v Brighton looks tricky when based on their defensive numbers. The Seagulls rank 4th best for xGA and this is why Salah’s score is slightly lower than the others.

Bruno Fernandes looks like a strong shout this week, and the metric backs that up. Southampton’s defensive numbers are about average in the last 5 GWs, but Bruno’s individual score and his individual bias are very high, which makes him a top choice this week.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

It looks another interesting week for the captaincy, with a fair few options that could take our armbands.

Bruno Fernandes is simply a points machine and although United are still performing inconsistently, he seems to be a consistent source of FPL points.

The fixture against Southampton looks a tough one on paper, but United could find joy if they can find a way to beat Saints’ press which could prove bountiful for Bruno and perhaps Rashford, as it was for Kane and Son.

Elsewhere, Mohamed Salah looks like he is back after testing positive for COVID whilst away on international duty. When Salah is available, he is always a top option but we still haven’t seen much of an improvement in his output away from home, and Brighton’s defensive numbers are quite strong.

Those hopping onto Kevin de Bruyne will be looking at him as an option against Burnley. Historically, City have done very well at breaking Sean Dyche’s side down at the Etihad, with their last 5 games there producing the following results:

Man City 5-0 Burnley
Man City 5-0 Burnley
Man City 5-0 Burnley
Man City 4-1 Burnley
Man City 3-0 Burnley

Embed from Getty Images

Having said that, City really haven’t been at it so far this season, not like we have seen before and we can say that’s down to no striker, but they have found ways around it before and I just feel like it’s not quite coming yet for them in attack despite strong fixtures on the horizon.

For me, the obvious and best choice is Jamie Vardy against the joint worst defence in the league.

Vardy typically operates best with space in behind, which Fulham will try their best not to give, but I just feel Fulham are just not good enough to deal with Vardy’s pace and movement. On top of that, Leicester have been awarded 7 penalties already this year so there’s always that chance of him getting a pen.

Premium player with pens, strong team v the weakest defence – it’s a case of the classic “don’t overthink it” for me.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Start a Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: