Captain Metric: FPL Gameweek 11

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 11 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Kevin de Bruyne – 61.3% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 18 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Bruno Fernandes18.7% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 16 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Mo Salah – 8.1% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 44 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Riyad Mahrez

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 39 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 31 penalty area touches.
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 0 assists.

Jamie Vardy

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Jamie Vardy.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overal individual score.

Jamie Vardy wins the captain metric for the second week running down to having the best individual score and team score of any candidate.

As we can see above, Vardy has received 7 big chances over the last 5 GWs, more than any other candidate in our metric, and that’s the key reason he ranks so highly on individual score.

Leicester’s xG (expected goals) still ranks the second highest over the last 5 GWs and Sheffield United, their opponents, rank the lowest for xGA (expected goals against) which is why the team score for Vardy ranks so highly.

Grealish would have been second, but given the game has been postponed we can ignore his score.

That means Bruno Fernandes comes second in our metric, down mainly to a very high individual score. He’s received 4 big chances and created 4 big chances over the past 5 GWs, so his xGI (expected goal involvement is quite high and well rounded – a high threat in both assist and goal getting.

In comparison, KDB, the vastly popular captain poll choice, has a strong team score with them playing against Fulham, but loses out on the individual score down to his goal threat being much less than others, with only 1 big chance over the last 5 gameweeks. With the lowest individual bias rating also, KDB relies far more on the team producing to do well than the other candidates do.

Mo Salah scores well again this week and should be a decent option despite what looks a difficult fixture on paper, with both the individual score and team score quite strong, as well as a decent individual bias rating.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

Looking through the stats we can see Vardy looks a very strong option this weekend, but I think a lot of us who own, will have captained him against Fulham and seen how lacklustre Leicester were in attack and be put off giving it to him.

I still think he’s a strong option as Sheffield United really are struggling right now, but having seen Man City dismantle Burnley, I think that’s where most will and are looking, including myself.

The clear and obvious one on paper is KDB, who I can’t see not doing well, but I think the best choice this week is Riyad Mahrez. Fresh and rested in their UCL tie mid-week, and off the back of a hat-trick against Burnley, I can see Mahrez grabbing another haul against Fulham this weekend.

The reason for me choosing Mahrez over KDB, is that the main brunt of points lie in goalscoring over assists. Kev’s gotta get almost 2 assists for every 1 goal scored by a midfielder, and his main job is to create, not to score, whereas Mahrez is mainly tasked with finding the net, and given that Sterling is in a real rut in front of goal and Jesus can’t be relied upon for it with Aguero still not ready, the task has to fall to Riyad to find a way to the back of the net.

He’s also quite a selfish player, which typically equates to more points in FPL.

That’s not to say I don’t think KDB is a top option, of course he is, and of course we know he can drive into the box and score, and even bang them in from range, but the consistent goal threat comes from the other attackers more so than him and that’s the reason I’m opting for Mahrez over KDB.

I always like Salah/Bruno as captaincy choices as they’re both so consistent. Bruno just has so many routes to points that every game there’s a chance he gets something and it’s the fact that he can produce points even when he, and even the team, are playing bad, that makes him such a good FPL asset to have, and good one to captain.

But this week, I really like Riyad Mahrez as captain. If you don’t have Riyad, then I would certainly advocate KDB against Fulham.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Start a Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

<span>%d</span> bloggers like this: