FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 13

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 13 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Kevin De Bruyne51.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 25 penalty area touches.
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 4 assists.

Bruno Fernandes – 37.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 16 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 18 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Mo Salah – 7.2% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Heung-Min Son 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 9 penalty area touches.
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 3 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 18 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 34 penalty area touches.
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Jamie Vardy

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 25 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Bruno Fernandes.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overal individual score.

Bruno Fernandes wins out this week down to having both the highest team score and the highest individual score.

Bruno’s opponents Sheffield United, have the worst xGA (expected goals against) and have conceded the most amount of goals in the last 5 GWs. To add to that, Man United have created the joint most amount of big chances (16) and have scored the joint most amount of goals (10) over that 5 GW period.

KDB runs him a fairly close second, with Man City having also created 16 big chances over the last 5 GWs, but they have only scored 8 goals.

KDB’s opponents WBA, also rank fairly poorly on the defensive numbers, with them having the second worst xGA rank of all Premier League teams over the same period.

In terms of the individual metric, Bruno just edges KDB down to Bruno creating 5 more chances than the Belgian over the last 5 GWs. In terms of goal threat, they’re similar, with both having around 20 shots and both having received 4 big chances, although De Bruyne has had 5 more goal attempts inside the box than the Portuguese playmaker.

Outside of the main two, Vardy, Salah, Grealish and Werner all represent reasonable outside choices this week with decent numbers, whilst Kane and Son’s scores suffer this week despite good form, down to quite poor underlying numbers for both them individually and Spurs as a team, combined with the difficult fixture.

The Full Picture

Okay, so this isn’t a week to gamble on a differential captain in my honest opinion. It’s gotta be Bruno Fernandes or Kevin De Bruyne.

So we know there’s a small difference statistically, Bruno wins out above, but how do we separate them in the full picture?

There are some variables the metric cannot take into account, like; how nailed on the player is, whether they have set-pieces or not, good records against specific teams, whether there’s a discernible difference between their home returns v their away returns, how reliable they are, how likely they are to hit a double-figure haul and the number of minutes they have played in recent weeks potentially affecting fatigue.

Both players are nailed on, both are the talisman for their respective sides, both on penalties and free kicks and corners and both are in very good form. Oh, and both of them play two of the worst defensive sides in the PL so far this season.

In KDB’s 5 appearances v WBA, he’s scored 2 goals and bagged 3 assists.

Bruno Fernandes has only played Sheffield United once, played 80 minutes and didn’t return.

Bruno’s returns away from home this season:

Brighton – 12pts
Newcastle – 11pts
Everton – 17pts
Southampton – 10pts
West Ham – 6pts

KDB’s returns at the Eithad this season:

Leicester – 2pts
Arsenal – did not play
Liverpool – 3pts
Burnley – 10pts
Fulham – 14pts

KDB has 6 blanks this season in his 10 games, whereas Bruno has only blanked on 4 occasions in his 11 games.

It also must be noted that Bruno Fernandes has had two very mentally and physically draining matches against Leipzig mid-week (Tuesday) and the derby on the Saturday just gone. He played a full 90 minutes in both games, whereas KDB was an unused substitute mid-week against Marseille.

Based on all the information above, and despite the two tough games for him close together, I think Bruno Fernandes is the best choice this week. He recently had a half rest against West Ham, so I’d be surprised to see him rested again.

I think both are extremely good options and I expect KDB to be in the points, but Sheffield United just look devoid of confidence right now and his returns away from home are incredible.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Start a Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

<span>%d</span> bloggers like this: