FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 14

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 14 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mo Salah – 40.4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Bruno Fernandes – 34.8% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 14 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 18 chances created (5 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Heung-Min Son – 13.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 8 penalty area touches.
  • 5 total goal attempts.
  • 2 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 28 penalty area touches.
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 16 chances created (8 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 3 assists.

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 13 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 35 penalty area touches.
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts 5inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 2 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Bruno Fernandes.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overal individual score.

My view

Despite Bruno Fernandes‘ surprise blank away to bottom of the league, where he has been so reliable, I wouldn’t be discouraged from captaining him again against Leeds.

Leeds are so attacking under Bielsa, they leave so much space for opposition to attack and it’s typically ending in high scoring games, as we’ve seen on a number of occasions already this season.

We know Man United are extremely dangerous when given space with the movement and pace of Martial, Rashford and Greenwood and with Bruno Fernandes and Pogba, they have the quality to really hurt this Leeds defence and I would expect them to.

Leeds’ xGA (expected goals against) ranks the 2nd worst for all teams over the last 5 GWs and Man Utd rank 2nd best for big chances created. With Bruno on all set-pieces and as influential as he is, it’s very difficult to see him blanking 3 GWs on the bounce against a side that offer up the kind of space Leeds do under Bielsa.

Kevin de Bruyne‘s underlying stats are phenomenal. It’s bewildering how he hasn’t managed to accumulate more points in the last 5 GWs. Sadly, his teammates have let him down but it’s tough to see that continuing. History suggests eventually, City will start putting these chances away and KDB will get his points.

Putting the Spurs game aside, where Southampton decided to afford Son all the space in the world, Saints have been much more organised in recent weeks and sit about average for xGA.

The quality of KDB is enough to undo that however, it seems to be more a question of whether the players around him are ready to find their shooting boots in order for Kev to get his just desserts, rather than it simply being a case of he plays well = FPL returns.

Mohamed Salah is this weeks poll winner, which did surprise me. Perhaps because of how reliable he is, but I feel Palace is not the one for a Salah captain personally.

Palace, over the last 5 GWs, have the 4th lowest xGA, so I don’t expect the Liverpool attack to see too many clear-cut chances, having said that, Liverpool did beat them comfortably 4-0 the last time they played, and Salah scored and got an assist – this was at Anfield mind and was last year when they were on fire.

Looking at things more recently and in addition, Liverpool’s last 5 away games in the PL have resulted in 4 draws and a defeat. They definitely don’t appear to be clicking in full gear, though it must be said, Salah has been extremely impressive this year and if one man is going to find a way through this defence, it will likely be him.

Looking at everything above, for me, it’s Bruno Fernandes again, with KDB a close second.

This is down to the fact that United are creating plenty of chances and taking them over the last 5 GWs, with their opponents Leeds, consistently conceding big chances and subsequently, goals. Bruno is their talisman and I simply can’t imagine, given the opposition and the way he plays, that he will blank again.

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