FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 15

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 15 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mo Salah – 78.5% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 23 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne – 12% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 17 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 4 assists.

Bruno Fernandes – 6.6% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 12 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Heung-Min Son 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 11 penalty area touches.
  • 5 total goal attempts.
  • 4 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 34 penalty area touches.
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 3 assists.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Raheem Sterling.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overal individual score.

My view

I’ve had a couple of conversations in the FPL Twitter community recently with people who seem to be concerned with captaining Mohamed Salah.

“WBA have been more defensively solid recently”, “What about the new manager bounce?” and “Will Sam Allardyce mean they’ll be even harder to break down?” were quotes I read.

Whilst all of the above quotes are valid reasoning, to an extent, I personally think that this is classic overthinking.

We in the FPL Community are often guilty of thinking on things for too long and it can lead to delving deeper into all the extra information surrounding the decision which can help, but it can also cloud the decision and make things more difficult.

I certainly think in this case, that the latter is true.

Sometimes, we really don’t need to delve any deeper than the fact we know what they are capable of, we know they tend to perform best at home/away, whether they’re on pens or not, whether they’re nailed-on or not and the strength of the opposition’s defence.

Salah will be nailed-on for this one having been benched in the last game, we know he’s on pens, we all know how explosive he can be (freshly reminded of this last GW having scored 16pts after coming on in the second half!), we know he tends to perform best at Anfield and we know that WBA have been one of the worst defensive teams so far this season.

Raheem Sterling has received 5 big chances in the previous 4 GWs, which is why he ranks so highly on our metric this week. Having said that, he has missed 3 of those 5 big chances and has so far, been in pretty poor scoring form for City this season in the Premier League.

Man City are also top for xG (expected goals) over the last 5 GWs, they just haven’t been taking their chances as well as we know they can and it’s been their Belgian midfield maestro who’s been suffering the most as a result of that.

Despite the above, Kevin de Bruyne has still produced 5 goal contributions in that period and rated as the second strongest individual score on our metric, with him creating 6 big chances for his teammates and him receiving 3 big chances himself over the last 5 GWs – it’s just, because of his role, he’s more reliant on the players around him to score him points whereas Salah is less so.

If City start converting their chances, Kevin de Bruyne/Sterling will be the ones accruing the big points and I would bet Kun Aguero too, once he is fit and ready to return.

We know Newcastle will sit deep, as will WBA under Allardyce, so it will be about which attack, City’s or Liverpool’s is more effective on the day, or which defence is better on the day, and these are variables we cannot predict, all we can say for sure right now, is that so far, Salah has been the better asset by some distance.

For me, there’s no need to overthink it. If you have Salah, captain him.

Outside of him, if you don’t own, I would certainly go for KDB or Sterling.

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