FPL Captain Metric: Blank Gamweek 18

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Blank Gameweek 18 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Kevin De Bruyne – 56.9% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 17 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 2 assists.

Bruno Fernandes – 32.4% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 20 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Heung-Min Son – 6.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 14 penalty area touches.
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 41 penalty area touches.
  • 8 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 3 assists.

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 25 penalty area touches.
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Raheem Sterling.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overall individual score.

My view

The metric results show that Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne and Bruno Fernandes are the top 3 choices this week from a statistical point of view.

Both Man United and Man City’s underlying attacking numbers are very strong over the last 5 GWs. Man United rank 2nd for big chances created and Man City rank 1st for big chances created over that period. United also rank 1st for xG and Man City 3rd for xG.

We can also see above that all 3 post strong individual underlying numbers.

In terms of their opposition, Burnley have only conceded 2 goals since GW12, but what’s interesting to note, is that they do have an xGA (expected goals against) rank of 7.24 which is the 5th worst of any team in that period.

Comparatively, Brighton, Man City’s opponents, have an xGA of 7.07 but over the course of the season, have let in 8 more goals than Burnley have.

Putting stats aside, it’s probably safer, particularly after hearing today that Sterling “isn’t fully fit”, to go with one of KDB or Bruno, as they’re both the talisman for their respective sides and are much more trustworthy in terms of minutes.

Out of the two, and given that Brighton have generally been worse defensively over the course of this season, I would captain and favour KDB over Bruno for this one.

Both should do well, but I trust that City will score more against Brighton than Man United will against Burnley, and with both at the heart of everything each teams do, it’s logical to go with the one who I believe will score more goals.

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