FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 20

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 20 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Bruno Fernandes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 26 penalty area touches
  • 15 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 5 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 2 assists

Marcus Rashford

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 34 penalty box touches
  • 1 chance created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 1 assist

Joao Cancelo

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 22 penalty box touches
  • 7 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 0 big chances
  • 0 goals
  • 0 assists

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 aopearances
  • 40 penalty box touches
  • 6 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 2 big chances
  • 1 goal
  • 1 assist

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Raheem Sterling.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overall individual score.

Please note that the metric scoring system reflects the structure of the double gameweek. This means that were a players has two fixtures, both games have been accounted for within the calculation.

Metric results explained

The metric results show that Raheem Sterling, Joao Cancelo and Harry Kane are the top three statistical choices for captaincy in Gameweek 20.

With injuries to strong captaincy candidates Kevin De Bruyne and Jamie Vardy, and a worrying loss of form for the Liverpool big hitters, the captaincy dilemma is much more open this week. Raheem Sterling wins based on our statistical captaincy model, but there is certainly more to consider this week than the data.

Average xG (expected goals) for and against per 90 minutes between Gameweeks 15 & 19

Looking at the past five Gameweeks (15-19), there have been two clubs performing at opposite ends of the ‘expected’ data spectrum (“xG”) – Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion. Man City have averaged 3.0xG (for) per 90, while WBA have conceded 2.4xG (against) per 90, more than any other club.

In De Bruyne’s absence, which looks to be around six weeks, Sterling appears to be the main threat for Man City in a fixture that, in theory, should be very comfortable for them.

However, there is also a strong argument for captaining a city defender given WBA have recorded the lowest xG (for) per 90 and Man City have conceded the least xG per 90 in recent weeks. Joao Cancelo could be the man to shine, despite recording no goals or assists in the past five Gameweeks.

While it appears that City have been dominating games from an attacking perspective recently, they have only converted 6 of their 22 big chances into goals.

Even with De Bruyne in the team, City have struggled all season without a natural goal scorer; a role typically fulfilled with devastating effect by Sergio Aguero. Without De Bruyne, Man City will need to find a different method of breaking down what will likely be a very organised and deep West Brom defence.

Who are the other options?

The popular captaincy choice this week will be Bruno Fernandes, who is selected by 54.7% of teams and faces Sheffield United at Old Trafford. Individually, Bruno has ticked along in recent weeks with 38 FPL points from six appearances. The argument that Bruno is much better away from home is starting to wear thin, following one FPL return (an assist) in three consecutive away games against Fulham, Liverpool and Burnley.

Sheff Utd themselves are no pushovers; 15 teams have conceded more big chances per 90 in the past five gameweeks. They are also conceding just 0.99xG per 90, only Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd and West Ham can better that. With Paul Pogba now a regular starter in the side, chance creation has been shared more than when only Bruno played. This could be great news for the forward players; less so for Bruno’s points potential.

Both Spurs and Liverpool would typically contain players worthy of the armband in FPL; Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, Sadio Mane and Mo Salah have all shown they can score big on their day.

Given they play each other this week, and neither team are scoring goals for fun, this one is probably best avoided. If you were to take a punt, Spurs counter mentality suits Son perfectly; highlighted when the sides met at Anfield earlier this season when the best chances of the match fell his way.

My view

Despite Man City having the ideal fixture this week, the absence of Kevin De Bruyne is a huge blow. His ability from set pieces and passing through congested areas will be sorely missed by a side who are already struggling to put away the many chances he creates.

Yes, Raheem Sterling was the statistical choice this week, but the quality of the fixtures contributes much heavily towards his score than his own personal contribution.

Despite concerns around the form of Bruno Fernandes, and the impact Paul Pogba is now having on his role in the side, Bruno is still a huge threat for Manchester United in a game that they will likely dominate possession. Lets not forget that Bruno still poses that threat from the penalty spot! Given his high ownership, there is very little risk in captaining Bruno for this fixture.

If you’re looking for a differential pick, there probably won’t be a better week to captain a Man City defender. Cancelo has looked electric going forward this season, but unfortunately hasn’t been collecting FPL returns for his efforts. Could this be the week those fortunes change?

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