Hello, and welcome to the second edition of Predicting the Dream Team brought to you by me, FPL Texan. In this article we preview FPL Gameweek 25.
I am currently ranked 345th in the world.
So first off, let’s take a look at who won the first battle in GW24, myself or Foomni.
Gameweek 24 Review
You can view the Gameweek 24 article here, to see who we each picked for our respective teams.
|Manager||Gameweek 24 Score||H2H Score|
As you can see, I win the first round! Man has defeated machine! It was a close battle but I just came out on top. That puts me 1-0 up going into GW25.
Probably the best pick of the bunch for my own team was Cresswell, who managed an assist, clean sheet and 3 bonus for 12 points.
Moving onto GW25, let’s take a look at Foomni Analytics’ team and a brief explanation of their algorithm.
Foomni’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 25)
Algo is a predictive algorithm developed by Foomni Analytics, with the goal of projecting FPL player points as correctly as possible. This is Algo’s second full season, and every week it makes new projections for all players and uses them to pick that week’s Dream Team, and provide general FPL advice.
Algo’s brain is a complex system that uses the data from several previous seasons to calculate a player’s form, and then determines what factors affect a player’s form, and applies appropriate modifiers to reflect them.
If you are interested to know more about Algo’s inner workings, this is a good place to start.
It is important to note that there may be a few final changes to Algo’s team following the press conferences.
Next, we will look at my predicted team of the week and my reasoning behind each decision.
Texan’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 25)
Important note before we begin – this is not my actual team for Gameweek 25, but instead my predicted team of the week (almost as though I had a free hit to choose as I wish).
- Price = £5.6m
- Ownership = 15.9%
- Projected points = 3.61 points
Nick Pope is coming off of an impressive double gameweek, in which he got 10 points. He now faces West Brom at home.
Pope is yet to concede to a bottom three team, and kept a clean sheet against West Brom in their previous meeting this season. Pope is averaging 3.95 saves this season, so the added save point appeal is also there.
- Price = £4.9m
- Ownership = 4.6%
- Projected points = 4.12 points
The Brighton defence has been in good form as of late, having kept 5 clean sheet in their last 6 matches. This week they face Crystal Palace at home.
Crystal Palace rank 3rd worst in the league for xG over the last 5 games, so another clean sheet could be on the cards for the Brighton defence. This is heightened by Zaha not being in the squad. In Palace’s last 20 games without Zaha, they have failed to score in 16 of those games. Zaha remains a doubt this week against Brighton.
Lewis Dunk also has the outside chance of grabbing a goal from a set piece, with three goals this season.
- Price = £6.1m
- Ownership = 20.8%
- Projected points = 3.41 points
Dias missed the first game in gameweek 24 due to illness, but returned for the Everton game. Man City have had one of the strongest defences in the league this season, with 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.
Dias has been at the centre of their defence this season, playing in every match since gameweek 4 and the first match of gameweek 24. I would expect Man City to continue their great defensive form this week against Arsenal as the City defence is just so hard to break down at the moment.
- Price = £5.0m
- Ownership = 7.7%
- Projected points = 3.79 points
Luke Shaw has been in fantastic form over the last few weeks, with 4 assists in his last three matches. In the last five matches, he has the highest xA in the league at 2.14.
This week Shaw faces a Newcastle team at home who have looked poor offensively since Callum Wilson got injured. This week I think Luke Shaw could easily out perform his 3.79 projected points, and have a double digit point day.
- Price = £11.5m
- Ownership = 59.9%
- Projected points = 9.25 points
Bruno has been very solid over the last three matches, with a goal in each of those games. His attacking numbers show that he is vital to what Man United do offensively, with an average of 3 shots and 2.4 key passes per match over the last 5 matches.
This week Bruno faces Newcastle at home, who are missing some important defenders such as Fabian Schar. In their last meeting, Bruno scored and assisted a goal, and could very well post a similar stat sheet this time against them.
- Price = £5.4m
- Ownership = 4.4%
- Projected points = 12.76 points
- Vs. Wolves = 6.69 points
- Vs. Southampton = 6.07 points
Raphinha has a double gameweek this week against Wolves and Southampton. He has been very impressive for Leeds since nailing down a starting role in the side, with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 matches.
This gameweek he faces a Wolves team that has kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches and a Southampton side that has allowed 18 goals in their last 5 matches, so I think Raphinha and the other Leeds attackers in this week’s Team of the Week will perform well.
- Price = £5.4m
- Ownership = 2.6%
- Projected points = 9.05 points
- Vs. Wolves = 4.20 points
- Vs. Southampton = 4.85 points
Whilst Raphinha is getting most of the attention of the Leeds midfielders heading into their double gameweek and rightly so, I do also think Jack Harrison is another great option that isn’t being talked about as much.
Harrison has 3 goals over the last 5 matches for Leeds, the most of any player on the team. As mentioned earlier, Wolves and Southampton are not in great form defensively, and I think Harrison could get a couple of returns this week against them.
- Price = £12.6m
- Ownership = 42.7%
- Projected points = 7.24 points
Even through Liverpool’s recent struggles, Salah has consistently been producing with 4 goals in his last 4 matches. Salah also ranks 4th in xG over the last 5 games at 2.98.
This week Salah faces Everton at home in the Merseyside Derby. Everton have not been very good as of late defensively, with the 5th highest expected goals allowed (xGA) over the last 5 games. This bodes well for Salah to continue his great form.
- Price = £8.4m
- Ownership = 11.5%
- Projected points = 10.58 points
- Vs. Chelsea = 4.93 points
- Vs. Southampton = 5.65 points
Southampton are the other team that have a double gameweek along with Leeds, so their top man Danny Ings makes the team this week. Ings is just now starting to find his goal scoring form again, having scored this weekend against Leeds and also in the FA Cup midweek.
Ings has an xG of 1.47 and xA of 1.08 over the last 5 games, and leads the team in both categories. This week he faces Chelsea and Leeds. Chelsea have been quite solid defensively, having kept 4 out of their last 5 teams goalless. Leeds on the other hand, have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 7 games. Ings being on penalties is an added bonus and he should be in line for a decent score.
PATRICK BAMFORD (C)
- Price = £6.9m
- Ownership = 54.4%
- Projected points = 12.61 points
- Vs. Wolves = 6.22 points
- Vs. Southampton = 6.39 points
Patrick Bamford is my selected captain for the week. Over the last 5 games, he has scored 2 goals and assisted 3. Over the same period, he has a team leading xG of 1.76 and xA of 1.48. Bamford also took the last penalty for Leeds and seems to still be their spot kick tacker.
Leeds opponents’ defensive woes have been documented throughout this article, so the Leeds top goal scorer gets the armband for me this week.
- Price = £11.0m
- Ownership = 23.5%
- Projected points = 5.78 point
Harry Kane comes in as the last player in the squad this week. Over his last 5 games he has accumulated 15 shots and 8 key passes. He also has scored 3 goals during that time period.
This week he faces West Ham at home, who will likely be missing their key Centre Back Ogbonna. In their previous meeting, Kane had a great day with 2 goals and an assist in the contest.
Man vs. Machine – Who will win?
Now you have seen our teams, who do you think will win this week? Man vs. Machine! Will Man continue his win streak, or will machine tie it?
Feel free to tweet us your predictions, and perhaps who you would have picked differently.
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