FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 25

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 25 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballHub.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/freetrial/.

Patrick Bamford

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 28 penalty area touches
  • 3 big chances created
  • 4 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 3 assists

Raphinha

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 2 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 4 assists

Danny Ings

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 28 penalty box touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 3 big chances
  • 1 goal
  • 0 assists

Bruno Fernandes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 21 penalty box touches
  • 4 big chance created
  • 1 big chance
  • 3 goals
  • 2 assists

Mo Salah

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 5 appearances
  • 33 penalty box touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 5 big chances
  • 4 goals
  • 0 assists

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric is Patrick Bamford.

Important notes: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Individual total has now been adjusted to account for other KPIs that can help identify a strong captaincy candidate. These include FPL points (as usual), xGI (expected goal involvement), penalty box touches, big chances, big chances created). These metrics have been adjusted so each metric carries similar eight to the overall individual score.

Please note that the metric scoring system reflects the structure of the double gameweek. This means that were a players has two fixtures, both games have been accounted for within the calculation.

Metric results explained

The metric results show that Patrick Bamford, Raphinha and Danny Ings are the top three statistical choices for captaincy in Gameweek 25.

Once again we find ourselves faced with another double gameweek; Leeds and Southampton are the two teams benefitting from an extra game this time.

As a result, these three players have come out on top of the metric due to their advantage of playing an extra game when most of the other candidates will only play once.

Key attacking stats for select Leeds & Southampton players between Gameweeks 20 & 24

As you can see from the recent individual stats (above), both Bamford and Raphinha are the standout performers across the two teams who play twice this week, having chipped in with both goals and assists while regularly touching the ball inside the penalty area.

Jack Harrison has actually scored the most goals (3) across both teams, but his underlying stats are poor and shows virtually no assist potential (0.05 expected assists per 90 minutes).

Danny Ings is the only Southampton player worth mentioning within the captaincy debate, although he has struggled to convert underlying stats into FPL returns in recent weeks; just the one goal from 414 minutes on the pitch. That said, his recent underlying stats do compare very closely with Bamford so don’t discount him from the captaincy argument completely.

Ideal fixtures to target?

While individual performances are a strong indicator of who could be a successful captaincy candidate, the upcoming fixtures should also be a factor when considering your captain.

Here’s a reminder of the teams who will be playing twice this gameweek:

Leeds – Wolves (A) & Southampton (H)

Southampton – Chelsea (H) & Leeds (A)

Average xG (expected goals) for and against per 90 minutes between Gameweeks 20 & 24

Of the two teams, Leeds appear to have the more favourable fixtures on paper from a captaincy perspective. Unfortunately, neither team have a particularly appealing first fixture; Leeds face Wolves who have only conceded an average of 0.85 xG (expected goals) across the past five gameweeks, while Southampton’s opponents, Chelsea, have conceded 0.53 xG on average.

Both of these teams (Wolves & Chelsea) have looked strong defensively in recent weeks; giving up very few big chances. Chelsea have conceded the fewest goals in this period (one, joint with Brighton), while Wolves have only conceded three. This puts much more emphasis on the Leeds vs Southampton fixture.

In Southampton, Leeds have an opponent who have been extremely leaky of late. The Saints have conceded 18 goals at an average xG against of 2.05 (1st, joint with Palace), and given up 15 big chances. It should be noted that 9/18 goals conceded were in one match against Man United.

Leeds themselves are also vulnerable at the back, but nine teams have given up more big chances in the past five gameweeks which suggests they aren’t one of the weaker sides currently. However, news that holding midfielder Kalvin Phillips will be missing could open up some flaws in the Leeds defensive unit.

Are there any single gameweek options?

Of course, FPL captaincy doesn’t have to be handed to a player with a double gameweek. There are still some very appealing individuals who have shown great form and have an exciting fixture in gameweek 25.

Key attacking stats for captaincy contenders between Gameweeks 20 & 24

Bruno Fernandes continues to perform at a consistently high level for Man United, who face Newcastle this weekend. He has taken more shots (18) and create more big chances (4, joint with Cresswell) than any other player in the past five gameweeks.

As a team, Man United have posed a strong attacking threat in recent weeks; only second to Man City for big chances, xG and goals scored. Newcastle look to have improved defensively, but have still conceded eight goals in the past five gameweeks.

Another player who should be on the radar is Mo Salah, who has seen a timely return to form following a long series of blanks. He faces Everton in what would normally be a comfortable home fixture, although Liverpool are really struggling at Anfield having lost their last three games to Man City, Brighton and Burnley respectively.

Salah is once again looking like a player who can make things happen; he has taken 17 shots and had five big chances fall his way in the past five gameweeks. Importantly, he has also scored four goals; much to the relief of many patient FPL managers!

The stats suggest that Liverpool will break down Everton and score at least a couple of goals; there’s a good chance that Salah will be involved if that’s the case.

As for Man City, it appears that rotation is back in full swing given the congested schedule coming up. The ‘in-form’ Gundogan is a doubt having picked up an injury against Spurs, while De Bruyne is still returning to fitness. There are definitely better options this week.

My view

As an FPL manager who own Bamford, Ings and Raphinha, it has been a tough call. Right now, I have the armband firmly on Patrick Bamford. The Leeds forward looks to be matching many of the ‘big hitters’ for underlying data, and has the added bonus of an extra fixture this week. He also comes into this week with a few returns behind him, whereas Ings has only scored the one league goal recently.

There’s not much to choose between Bamford and Raphinha; both could very easily outscore each other over the two gameweeks. At the time of writing, Raphinha is owned by just 5.5% of teams which means just owning him will have a strong effect on your rank if he scores well.

However, if you didn’t captain Bamford and he scored highly, you would see a very negative effect on your rank. Therefore, captaining Bamford over Ings or Raphinha would be seen as a more protective move this week.

I also feel there is very good value in captaining a single gameweek player. Either Fernandes or Salah (in that order) would be at the top of my list as they both take good individual form into a favourable fixture.

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