FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 28

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 28 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this FPL Gameweek?

Article written by FPL Rover.

BRAND NEW METRIC EXPLAINED: This article (hit the link) explains the concept and working fully >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of the Poll

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballHub.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/freetrial/.

Kevin De Bruyne

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 2 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 1 assist

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 53 penalty area touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 6 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 1 assist

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 27 penalty box touches
  • 2 big chances created
  • 6 big chances
  • 4 goals
  • 2 assists

Timo Werner

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 34 penalty box touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 7 big chances
  • 1 goal
  • 2 assists

Mo Salah

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 6 appearances
  • 33 penalty box touches
  • 1 big chance created
  • 5 big chances
  • 2 goals
  • 0 assists

Captain Metric

The winner of this weeks Captain Metric will be revealed later in the article.

Unlike recent weeks, we have a traditional gameweek where all teams play once. There are no teams blanking or doubling their fixtures. Also, given the nature of form and fixtures, there may be a few surprise choices thrown into the captaincy metric this week!

Who are the top performers?

We have summarised the data from the past five gameweeks for selected players ahead of the gameweek 28 in the table below.

Key attacking stats for select captaincy candidates between Gameweeks 23 & 27

Following a number of weeks where the schedule has largely dictated the captaincy pool, particularly where some teams have experienced double fixtures, we can judge all players on their recent form and the strength of their single fixture this week.

Please note the all data in the article is based on the past five gameweeks unless stated otherwise.

Harry Kane was largely overlooked for captaincy in gameweek 27 due to Man City having two fixtures, but the Spurs striker is back in form and scoring goals. With Son and Bale starting beside him now, Spurs look like a decent attacking outfit once again and Kane is at the heart of the action.

Kane’s all round game has really improved recently; he has taken more shots per 90 minutes (4.4) than any other selected captaincy candidate, scoring four goals. He also has the highest expected assists per 90 (0.23), showing his ability to create chances for others too. With six attacking returns in his past five gameweeks, Kane is in great form.

Kevin De Bruyne is also putting up some impressive numbers, having just scored twice against Southampton in Man City’s 5-2 triumph on Wednesday evening. Furthermore, his 3.3 key passes per 90 minutes eclipses that of the other selected options, although he only has one assist to show for it.

Owners of Raheem Sterling may be left frustrated by his benching against Southampton given how well the team performed in attack, but he should be ready for the upcoming gameweek. He has posted an impressive 53 penalty box touches in his last six games, with six big chances falling his way. Finishing seems to be an issue though, as he has only scored twice in this time.

Timo Werner’s name enters the conversation once again as the Chelsea forward seems to be gaining confidence under new manager Tuchel. Yes, returns are a little thin on the ground still, however seven big chances and 34 penalty box touches in his last six games shows a player getting in the right positions. He also has two assists so goals aren’t his only avenue to FPL points.

Another FPL outcast, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang also warrants a mention this week following a couple of eye-catching displays in recent games. Four goals against Leeds (3) and Burnley (1) will have given his confidence a huge boost, and supports his strong underlying data since he has moved more central in attack. He is currently having 7.6 penalty box touches and 0.84 expected goals per 90 minutes; more goals will come if he continues to perform at this level.

Which fixtures should be targeted?

Average xG (expected goals) for and against per 90 minutes between Gameweeks 23 & 27

Based on the above graphic, Man City and Chelsea have the best fixtures from an attacking perspective this week. City face a Fulham side who have been very impressive defensively in recent weeks, however the strength of Man City’s attack should be too much for them to handle. It will be an interesting contest given City have scored 2.8 per 90 (1st) while Fulham have only conceded 0.3 per 90 (joint 1st).

Chelsea have also been impressive, predominantly in defence, and face Leeds United who have typically been viewed as one of the more vulnerable defences in the league this season. Chelsea have posted impressive underlying attacking stats with 1.77 xG90 (3rd) and 2.8 big chances per 90 (2nd), however only 1.3 goals per 90 have been scored.

Leeds sit around mid table for xG90 conceded (1.68) in recent games; there are certainly a few teams more deserving of the ‘whipping boys’ tag. However, Leeds are likely to attack Chelsea as they would any other side in the division, which should play nicely into the hands of Timo Werner and the other Chelsea attackers.

Attacking and Defensive stats per club, sorted by league position, between Gameweeks 23 & 27

One of the more fascinating fixtures to focus on this week is Arsenal vs Spurs. You can see from the xG matrix that they are both positioned very closely in the ‘high attacking threat, strong defence‘ category, with Spurs showing much improvement recently. Both teams are getting 2+ big chances per 90, while goals are also flowing. Spurs’ 2.0 goals per 90 ranks them 2nd, while Arsenal’s 1.6 goals per 90 ranks them joint 3rd.

Both teams are also more resolute in defence, so it does become difficult to call what kind of game we are going to see. Goals seem to have dried up this month so hopefully we will see two of the more in-form attacking sides put on a show in this competitive fixture; if Mourinho allows it!

Another team who have a favourable fixture on paper are Leicester, who face Sheffield United. Their opposition are arguably the worst defensive side in the league on current form, giving up 3.3 big chances per 90 (1st) and conceding 1.97 xG per 90 (1st) in the past five gameweeks.

It is a shame for Leicester that this fixture falls at a time when so many key players are unavailable. Injuries to Justin, Barnes and Maddison have neutered their attacking threat, despite Jamie Vardy returning to the side following an operation. With just 1.13 xG per 90, Leicester are struggling to create scoring opportunities for the prolific forward.

Man United put on an impressive display to beat local rivals Man City in gameweek 27, and face another tough test in West Ham this week. David Moyes is getting some very consistent performances from his side and are currently one of the best attacking and defensive teams in the league.

With just 1.15 xG and 1.3 big chances per 90, Man United have really struggled to create scoring opportunities; particularly against sides who sit deeper. Given West Ham have only conceded 0.6 goals per 90 (4th), Man United will face another tough challenge in breaking down a well organised defensive unit.

Who wins the Captaincy Metric?

The winner of the captaincy metric for gameweek 28 is Harry Kane, with Timo Werner and Raheem Sterling taking 2nd and 3rd respectively.

You can see the results for all candidates in the table below, broken down by their individual and team contributions towards the metric score. For a more detailed understanding of how the metric is calculated, please click here.

Please note: Individual bias (IB), highlights how balanced their score is between team and individual form. A score below 50% suggests the team has contributed the most weight to their score, while a score above 50% shows individual performances that outweigh that of the team.

Based on the metric calculation, Harry Kane is the player most likely to score FPL points this week. Individually he is in great form, while the team are also performing well and creating chances. Given performance levels can be raised for derby matches, the fixture against Arsenal may actually be ideal for Kane captaincy this week.

If you prefer fixtures over form, Werner and Vardy are the options to pick here. Their metric scores are weighted heavily in favour of team performance, as both players have struggled for consistent form recently.

Bruno Fernandes has the worst metric score this week, which is certainly a reflection of his individual form and the difficulty of the fixture they face this weekend. However, as we saw last weekend, he only needs one chance to bring home the points.

Despite Liverpool’s struggles recently, Mo Salah remains one of the better captaincy options this week. Salah’s 0.9 big chances per 90 is one of the better totals, while Liverpool have underperformed their xG over the past five gameweeks. Victory against RB Leipzig in midweek may be the catalyst Liverpool needed to revive their push for the top four; you’d expect Salah to play an important role going forward.

My view

This is definitely one of those rounds where captaincy will be spread around, which makes for a much more exciting gameweek in my opinion. The lack of an outstanding candidate opens up possibilities outside of the usual core group; hence why the likes of Werner and Aubameyang have been included this week.

As usual, Man City attacking players are very appealing but there is always a seed of doubt when it comes to rotation. De Bruyne seems crucial to Pep’s plans, while Sterling is rested ahead of their visit to Craven Cottage this weekend. If I was going for a City player, it would be between those two.

For me, Harry Kane is the standout form player to choose from this week. I’m not expecting a huge number of goals in the Spurs vs Arsenal game, but you can almost guarantee if Spurs do get one or two then Kane will be involved. He has quickly moved from the bottom of the metric to the top with a couple of weeks, such has been his impact.

If you’re more enticed by a strong fixture, then look no further than Werner or Mount of Chelsea. Leeds have been a really fun fixture to target with captaincy this season, given their gung-ho approach to every game. You have to give Leeds credit for this; personally I love watching their games as you know there will be chances at both ends. The question is, can Werner finally start putting them away?

This isn’t a direction I’ll be looking to go having been burned by Salah a couple of times recently, but Jota returning to fitness and Fabinho back in midfield could really accelerate Liverpool’s recovery. It wouldn’t surprise me if Salah becomes the clear captaincy choice in many of the remaining fixtures, so jumping on now may yield some crucial differential points!

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