Predicting the Dream Team – Foomni Vs. Texan (Gameweek 28)

Hello, and welcome to the fifth edition of Predicting the Dream Team brought to you by me, FPL Texan. In this article, we preview FPL Gameweek 28.

In this series, I go head-to-head each week with Foomni Analytics to see who can select the best team of the week, their algorithm or myself. It is a classic battle of man vs. machine!

So first off, let’s take a look at who won the fourth battle in GW27, myself or Foomni.

Gameweek 27 Review

ManagerGameweek 27 ScoreH2H ScoreTotal Points (Since GW24)
FPL Texan843342
Foomni Algo791334

As you can see, I have won two straight to open a 3-1 lead against Algo!

The key selection was having Harry Kane in my team, who scored 19 points this week.

Moving onto GW28, let’s take a look at Foomni Analytics’ team and a brief explanation of their algorithm.

Foomni’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 28)

Algo is a predictive algorithm developed by Foomni Analytics, with the goal of projecting FPL player points as correctly as possible. This is Algo’s second full season, and every week it makes new projections for all players and uses them to pick that week’s Dream Team, and provide general FPL advice.

Algo’s brain is a complex system that uses the data from several previous seasons to calculate a player’s form, and then determines what factors affect a player’s form, and applies appropriate modifiers to reflect them.

If you are interested to know more about Algo’s inner workings, this is a good place to start.

It is important to note that there may be a few final changes to Algo’s team following the press conferences.

Next, we will look at my predicted team of the week and my reasoning behind each decision.

Texan’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 28)

Important note before we begin – this is not my actual team for Gameweek 28, but instead my predicted team of the week (almost as though I had a free hit to choose as I wish).

EMILIANO MARTINEZ

  • Price = £5.4m
  • Ownership = 40.4%
  • Projected points = 5.40 points

Martinez is back in the team of the week again. After another clean sheet and a 7 point outing against Wolves, he gets Newcastle at home this week. Over the last 5 gameweeks, Newcastle rank 2nd worst in the league for xG at 4.09. This bodes well for Emi and the Villa defence to keep another clean sheet this week.

Martinez is averaging 3.72 saves per game, which equates to one save point per game, and likely bonus points if he keeps a clean sheet.

LUCAS DIGNE

  • Price = £6.2m
  • Ownership = 10.0%
  • Projected points = 4.29 points

Digne and Everton have a favourable matchup this week with Burnley at home. Burnley are ranked in the bottom 10 for xG over the last 5 games, with an xG of 4.72. Everton on the other hand have had 3 clean sheets in their last 4, with 2 of those teams being in the top 10 for xG over the last 5 games showing that they can keep clean sheets against better opponents.

Digne’s attacking potential is the main factor for having him in the side. He is constantly whipping balls into the box, and is second on the team over the last 5 games for xA.

JOAO CANCELO

  • Price = £6.2m
  • Ownership = 24.2%
  • Projected points = 3.99 points

Cancelo is coming of a gameweek in which he scored a disappointing 1 point. This is largely due to him not playing in the second match. This week he faces Fulham away. It’s hard not to have a least one City defender in FPL managers team’s nowadays, since it always seems that they will likely keep a clean sheet.

This week, they face a much improved Fulham side, who rank in the top half for xG over the last 5 matches, but it is still hard to bet against City conceding.

Cancelo’s attacking potential is what separates him from the other City defenders, leading them in xG and xA by some distance. With Cancelo being rested in the second game this past week, he slots into my defence with fresh legs and hopefully a nice return.

CESAR AZPILICUETA

  • Price = £5.7m
  • Ownership = 5.4%
  • Projected points = 3.11 points

Azpilicueta is coming off a 9 point performance against Everton, and get Leeds away this week. Chelsea’s defence has been rock solid over the last 5 matches, leading the league in xGA at 1.81.

Azpilicueta has started every game of the Tuchel era, and I would expect that to continue this weekend. Leeds are a great attacking team, but Chelsea’s defence are in some form at the moment.

Azpilicueta is also a bonus point magnet, getting bonus points in 3 of the last 4 games so its a good bet that if Chelsea keep a clean sheet he should be on for some bonus.

MASON MOUNT

  • Price = £7.0m
  • Ownership = 13.5%
  • Projected points = 5.29 points

Mason Mount makes the team of the week again this week, with a game against Leeds away. Last week Mount was rested against Everton, making a late appearance for a few minutes at the end of the match. This means Mount should be rested and ready to attack a weak Leeds defence. Over the last 5 games, Leeds are in the bottom half for xGA in the league.

Mount is very involved in the Chelsea attack, being 4th in xG and 2nd in xA over the last 5 matches. Leeds are also one of the worst teams in the league at defending set pieces, and Mount is on most set pieces for Chelsea, so I think a nice game is in store for him.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

  • Price = £11.8m
  • Ownership = 17.2%
  • Projected points = 6.68 points

De Bruyne is coming off a double gameweek in which he scored 16 points. This week he faces Fulham at home. De Bruyne seems to be back to his old self, with a brace against Southampton in his last appearance.

Over the last 5 games, he is second on the team in shots per 90 minutes at 3.52 and first in key passes per 90 minutes at 3.30. This shows just how involved he is in the attack. Fulham are quite solid in defence, ranking in the top half for xGA over the last 5 matches, but with City seeming to find their goal scoring form again, no team can hold them back.

BRUNO FERNANDES

  • Price = £11.5m
  • Ownership = 57.1%
  • Projected points = 10.00 points

Bruno faces West Ham at home this week. Bruno has been in solid form, with 5 goals in his last 7 matches. He also ranks 9th among midfielders in xG over the last 5 games at 1.76. West Ham have been a strong defence, ranking 3rd lowest in xGA since February 1st, but have not kept a clean sheet against a “top 6” club this season. I would expect this streak to continue with United scoring this week.

MOHAMAD SALAH

  • Price = £12.5m
  • Ownership = 35.3%
  • Projected points = 5.47points

Mohamad Salah makes the team of the week in Gameweek 28, with an away fixture against Wolves. Salah has been in a bit of a scoring drought as of late, but his stats suggest that he is still performing well.

Over the last 5 games, Salah has an xG of 1.9 which is 6th for midfielders over that span. Wolves have been poor defensively as of late, with the 3rd highest xGA in the league over the last 5 matches at 9.50.

Salah and Liverpool have been in a slump offensively, but looked better in their Champions League game in which Salah scored so hopefully this gets them back on track.

HARRY KANE (C)

  • Price = £11.3m
  • Ownership = 38.0%
  • Projected points = 6.33 points

Harry Kane comes in as my captain this week, after a dominant display against Palace with two goals and assists. This week he has the North London Derby. Kane has found his goal scoring form as of late, ranking 6th in the league for xG over the last 5 matches.

In a big derby game for Spurs, I’m backing Kane to get on the scoresheet again this week as my captain.

MBAYE DIAGNE

  • Price = £6.0m
  • Ownership = 0.7%
  • Projected points = 2.74 points

Diagne is my differential pick in the Team of the Week this week with a away fixture against Crystal Palace. Palace have been very poor defensively as of late, with the 5th worst xGA in the league over the last 5 matches.

Diagne has been in good form as of late, ranking 4th in the league for xG over the last 5 matches at 3.03. Diagne has been unlucky to only score one goal over that time period, and I think this week he could start to capitalise on his chances.

OLLIE WATKINS

  • Price = £6.6m
  • Ownership = 26.6%
  • Projected points = 4.77 points

Watkins is the final man on my team this week, with a home fixture against Newcastle. Newcastle’s defense has kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches, so goals should be had for Villa. Watkins has been even more involved in the Villa attack since the Grealish injury, with 14 shots and 6 key passes in his last 5 appearances, we see that he is getting involved in the build up play as well as his normal finishing ways.

In a game where I think Newcastle concede, Watkins rounds out my team of the week.

Man vs. Machine – Who will win?

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Now you have seen our teams, who do you think will win this week? Man vs. Machine!

Will I push my win streak to 3?

Or will Algo start their own win streak?

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