Hello, and welcome to the seventh edition of Predicting the Dream Team brought to you by me, FPL Texan. In this article, we preview FPL Gameweek 30.
So first off, let’s take a look at who won the sixth battle in GW29, myself or Foomni.
Gameweek 29 Review
|Manager||Gameweek 29 Score||H2H Score||Total Points|
As you can see, I have won four straight to open a 5-1 lead against Algo!
The key selection was Patrick Bamford , who scored 11 points!
Moving onto GW30, let’s take a look at Foomni Analytics’ team and a brief explanation of their algorithm.
Foomni’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 30)
Algo is a predictive algorithm developed by Foomni Analytics, with the goal of projecting FPL player points as correctly as possible. This is Algo’s second full season, and every week it makes new projections for all players and uses them to pick that week’s Dream Team, and provide general FPL advice.
Algo’s brain is a complex system that uses the data from several previous seasons to calculate a player’s form, and then determines what factors affect a player’s form, and applies appropriate modifiers to reflect them.
If you are interested to know more about Algo’s inner workings, this is a good place to start.
It is important to note that there may be a few final changes to Algo’s team following the press conferences.
Next, we will look at my predicted team of the week and my reasoning behind each decision.
Texan’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 30)
Important note before we begin – this is not my actual team for Gameweek 30, but instead my predicted team of the week (almost as though I had a free hit to choose as I wish).
- Price: £5.2m
- Ownership: 8.2%
- Projected Points: 3.91 points
Mendy is in the net for me this week in a double-up on the Chelsea defence. Chelsea face West Brom this week, who are in the bottom 5 in the league for xG. Combine this with Chelsea having the lowest xGA in the league over the same period, a double Chelsea defence is the way to go for my team of the week, as well as a viable scenario for managers in the long term.
Mendy only averages 1.83 saves per match, so a save point is possible but not always likely, especially against West Brom.
- Price: £5.7m
- Ownership: 2.5%
- Projected Points: 2.13 points
Alonso is the second half of my double Chelsea defence this week. Chelsea’s defensive stats and West Brom’s offensive struggles have already been mentioned above, so I will focus on Alonso’s attacking potential.
Over his last 5 appearances, Alonso has an xA of 1.52, which leads Chelsea in that category and is second in the league for defenders. He also is getting involved in goal scoring chances, averaging 2.56 shots per 90 which is very encouraging for a defender.
Alonso is a rotation risk due to Chelsea having Chilwell in the same position, so Targett will replace him from the bench should Alonso not play.
- Price: £5.2m
- Ownership: 13.7%
- Projected Points: 3.86 points
Luke Shaw makes the team this week, with a home fixture against Brighton. Shaw has been in fantastic form over the last few gameweeks, and has become one of the best defensive options in the game. Over the last 5 game, Luke has an xA of 0.67 and has 2.4 Key Passes per 90 mins. This shows that Shaw is getting extremely involved in the attack and is becoming one of United main creative outlets.
There is also clean sheet appeal against a Brighton team with well documented issues in front of goal.
- Price: £5.1m
- Ownership: 25.3%
- Projected Points: 5.30 points
Dallas is my final defender choice this week, as Leeds get a favourable matchup against Sheffield United. Sheffield United are in the bottom five for xG over the last 5 matches which bodes well for clean sheet appeal for Leeds defenders.
Dallas is playing out of position (OOP) in the midfield most matches, so he also offers great attacking return potential with 1 goal in his last 5 matches. Dallas also leads the league in goals scored by defenders with 5, so there is a chance for a big haul for him this week.
- Price: £5.7m
- Projected Points: 6.59 points
Moving on to the midfielders, Raphinha is up first. Sheffield United have an xGA of 12.38 over the last 5 matches, which is the highest in the league by some margin so having Leeds attackers this week is a good idea. Raphinha has been in great form, leading Leeds in xA (1.72) and second on the team in xG (1.57).
Raphinha is creating a lot of chances for a very attacking Leeds team, averaging 3 key passes over the last 5 matches, so he is a must have in my team this week and is also a captaincy option.
- Price: £7.0m
- Ownership: 14.8%
- Projected Points: 5.13 points
Mason Mount faces West Brom away this week. West Brom have managed just 5 clean sheets this season, which is the second lowest in the league. Chelsea have been middle in the road in terms of xG, but I think this will change starting this week as they get a nice run of fixtures.
Mount has been in great form as of late with 2 goals in his last 5 matches. He also played very well for England during the international break and has kept that form up. Mount is also on most set pieces for Chelsea so the assist factor is also great for him too.
- Price: £11.5m
- Ownership: 56.6%
- Projected Points: 7.13 points
Bruno makes the team of the week again this week. Over the last 5 games, Bruno has 2 goals and an assist. He is also averaging 2.06 xG and 1.00 xA over that time. In the previous matchup, Bruno recorded a goal and assist in a 12 FPL point performance.
Although Brighton are a tough matchup, ranking in the top 5 for xGA over the last 5 matches, it is hard to bet against Bruno who almost always seems to find his way on the score sheet.
- Price: £9.4m
- Ownership: 43.6%
- Projected Points: 3.97 points
Son makes the team of the week with a favourable matchup against Newcastle this week. Over his last 5 appearances, Son boasts an xA of 3.45 which leads his team by some margin. Tottenham have also seemed to regain their early season goal scoring form, ranking in the top 5 for xG over the last 5 matches. Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 8 games, and I would expect that to be pushed to 1 in 9 this week.
Son is an injury doubt due to picking up a hamstring injury in GW28. Should he not play, Ollie Watkins would replace him in my lineup.
KEVIN DE BRUYNE
- Price: £11.9m
- Ownership: 18.5%
- Projected Points: 6.09 points
De Bruyne rounds out my midfield this week, as he and City go up against Leicester. Over the last 5 games, KDB has returned to his usual form recording 2 goals and an assist.
Unsurprisingly, he has been heavily involved in the City attack, averaging 3.52 Shots per 90mins and 3.30 Key Passes per 90mins. City lead the league in xG over the last 5 matches at 14.35, and KDB has been one of the main reasons. Leicester are a top 10 team in terms of xGA over the last 5 matches, but it is hard to slow down this City attack when they are firing on all cylinders.
HARRY KANE (C)
- Price: £11.6m
- Ownership: 45.7%
- Projected Points: 6.54 points
Kane comes in as my captain this week, playing Newcastle away. As mentioned in the Son section, Newcastle have been unable to keep clean sheets, and I expect it to continue this week against Spurs.
Kane has been in good form, with 4 goals and 2 assists over the last 5 matches. He also seems to be looking for goal frequently, with 4.07 shots per 90mins over the last 5 matches. Kane and Spurs seem to be finding their early season form, so Kane and Son are easy calls for my team.
- Price: £6.7m
- Ownership: 48.2%
- Projected Points: 4.93 points
Bamford is my last selection this week, with the great matchup against Sheffield Untied. Sheffield’s defensive woes have been well documented throughout the article, so its not a surprise that I have tripled up on Leeds in my team of the week. Bamford is Leeds main goal scoring threat, leading the team in xG over the last 5 matches at 1.92 and scoring 2 goals over that time. Leeds are top 5 in xG over the last 5 matches, so they are finding goal scoring positions frequently.
In a game where Leeds could go big, having their main attacking players is a must for managers this week.
Man vs. Machine – Who will win?
Will I continue my win streak, or will Algo start to mount a comeback?
Let us know in the comments who you are backing this week!
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