Hello, and welcome to the 15th edition of Predicting the Dream Team brought to you by me, FPL Texan. In this article, we preview FPL Gameweek 38.
So first off, let’s take a look at who won the 14th battle in GW37, myself or Foomni.
|Manager||Gameweek Score||H2H Score||Overall Points|
As you can see, I have won this week and pushed the overall score to 10-4!
One of the main picks for my team was Bamford, who scored 12 points.
Moving onto GW38, let’s take a look at Foomni Analytics’ team and a brief explanation of their algorithm.
Foomni’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 38)
Algo is a predictive algorithm developed by Foomni Analytics, with the goal of projecting FPL player points as correctly as possible. This is Algo’s second full season, and every week it makes new projections for all players and uses them to pick that week’s Dream Team, and provide general FPL advice.
Algo’s brain is a complex system that uses the data from several previous seasons to calculate a player’s form, and then determines what factors affect a player’s form, and applies appropriate modifiers to reflect them.
If you are interested to know more about Algo’s inner workings, this is a good place to start.
It is important to note that there may be a few final changes to Algo’s team following the press conferences.
Next, we will look at my predicted team of the week and my reasoning behind each decision.
Texan’s Predicted Team of the Week (Gameweek 38)
Important note before we begin – this is not my actual team for Gameweek 38, but instead my predicted team of the week (almost as though I had a free hit to choose as I wish).
- Price: £4.8m
- Ownership: 0.7%
- Projected Points 4.13 Points
Dubravka is my keeper for the last gameweek of the season with a nice matchup against Fulham. Since they were officially relegated, Fulham’s attack has been poor ranking last in xG over the last 4 games at 6.72. This bodes well for a Newcastle side looking to finish strong at the end of the season.
Dubravka averages 3.75 saves per match, equaling a save point each game.
- Price: £7.8m
- Ownership: 26.0%
- Projected Points: 6.13 Points
Trent again makes the team of the week with a matchup against Crystal Palace. Palace have been strong offensively as of late, with the 6th highest xG in the league over the last 4 games, but so has Liverpool’s defence with the 6th best xGA over the same period. Trent has been in phenomenal form as of late, leading the league in xA for defenders over the last 5 games.
Trent is in great form, so he is a must in the team of the week.
- Price: £4.8m
- Ownership: 8.5%
- Projected Points: 3.97 Points
Coufal makes a return to the team of the week with a matchup against Southampton. West Ham have been a more solid defence since Rice returned, ranking 8th best in xGA over the last 4 games. Coufal also offers good attacking potential, with 2 assists in his last 5 games tying him for first on the team in the category.
Coufal is a nice option this week for a possible attacking return against a below average Saints defence.
- Price: £5.5m
- Ownership: 31.8%
- Projected Points: 4.07 Points
Dallas rounds out the defenders this week again with a nice matchup against West Brom. The Baggies have the 6th worst xG in the league over the last 4 games which bodes well for an improved Leeds defence since Llorente returned to the line-up. Dallas also offers tremendous attacking potential playing OOP in the midfield. Dallas is third on the team in xG over the last 5 games at 1.06.
Dallas has led defenders in goals this season, and hopefully he can end the season with a another one for his owners.
MOHAMED SALAH (C)
- Price: £12.9m
- Ownership: 41.6%
- Projected Points: 7.73 Points
Salah is my captain again this week with a matchup against Palace. Palace are top 5 in xGA over the last 4 gameweeks which bodes well for a Liverpool side that are 1st in xG over the same period. Salah has been a main force in this period, ranking 2nd on the team in xG (3.18) and second in xA (1.86) over the last 5 games.
Salah and Liverpool are in great form, so the Egyptian King is my captain this week.
- Price: £11.7m
- Ownership: 6.5%
- Projected Points: 8.56 Points
Mane makes the team of the week this week in my double up of Liverpool mids. As mentioned earlier, Liverpool are 1st in xG over the last 4 games so all Liverpool assets are great options this week. Mane has been regaining his form as of late, ranking third in xG (2.49) and third in xA (1.71) over the last 5 games. These stats are just slightly lower than Salah, but Mane is still performing at a very high level.
Mane is a great choice this week, and a differential captain choice for those trying to make a late push.
- Price: £5.5m
- Ownership: 8.2%
- Projected Points: 3.98 Points
Raphinha makes the team of the week again this week. West Brom’s defence has been poor, ranking 4th worst in the league over the last 4 games so Leeds attackers are a good bet to get some points this week. Raphinha has been one of the most exciting players in the league this season, and since returning from injury he has picked up where he left off with 2 assists in his last 3 games.
I expect Leeds to score a few goals on Sunday, so their most creative player Raphinha makes the team of the week.
- Price: £6.6m
- Ownership: 29.4%
- Projected Points: 4.12 Points
Lingard is back in the team of the week with a nice matchup against Southampton. Southampton have been middle of the road, ranking 9th worst in xGA since May 1st, whilst West Ham have been great offensively ranking 2nd best in xG over the same period. Lingard has been one of the main catalysts for their success this season, and grabbed an assist in their last game.
Jlingz makes the team of the week in a game that West Ham will be going for to get European Football.
- Price: £11.9m
- Ownership: 45.0%
- Projected Points: 7.43 Points
Kane makes the team of the week this week. Spurs have been strong offensively as of late, ranking 3rd in xG over the last 4 games. Kane is the main source of this, leading the league in xG over the last 5 games at 3.84. He also ranks third in xA for Spurs over the same period.
In what could be Kane’s last game for Tottenham, he is a no-brainer in my team of the week.
- Price: £6.6m
- Ownership: 43.0%
- Projected Points: 6.23 Points
The hero from last weeks article, Patrick Bamford, again makes the team this week. West Brom as mentioned in the Raphinha section have been poor as of late, so Bamford should finish the season strong. He has been in great form as of late, leading the team in xG over the last 5 games.
Bamford has had a superb season, and I think he will end it with a bang against West Brom.
- Price: £6.6m
- Ownership: 9.6%
- Projected Points: 5.47 Points
Antonio rounds out the team of the week this week. As mentioned prior, Southampton have been poor defensively as of late, which bodes well for an in-form Antonio. Antonio has 3 goals in his last 4 games, and leads the team in xG at 2.46 over that period. Based on his comments post game last week he is also now on penalties which adds more value to him as an asset.
Antonio has been in great form, so he is a no-brainer against a weak Saints defense this week.
Man vs. Machine – Who will win?
Will I end the season on a win streak, or will Algo pull one back?
Let us know in the comments!
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Before I sign off on the weekly series for the season, I just wanted to thank each and everyone of you that has read the article this season. I didn’t know what to expect when I started writing it, but the support has been great! So again, thank you guys for the support, and I’ll be back again next season to try and retain the crown against the machine!